Robert Schoen
Stefan H. Jonsson

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol9/6/

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Abstract
We observe that a dynamic population model can have period fertility that is always below replacement and cohort fertility that is always above replacement. We ask whether such a paradoxical population will get larger or smaller, and show that it must become smaller. Cohort replacement does not imply population replacement, and emphasizing fertility timing and cohort fertility ignores the issue of relative cohort size. The resolution of this apparent paradox reinforces the importance of the level of period fertility in demographic analysis.

Author's affiliation
Robert Schoen
Pennsylvania State University, United States of America
Stefan H. Jonsson
Pennsylvania State University, United States of America

Keywords
Bongaarts-Feeney adjusted fertility, cohort, cohort fertility, dynamic population model, fertility, fertility timing, period fertility

Word count (Main text)
1623

Other Articles by the same author/authors (in Demographic Research)

	[13-5] Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy
	[13-3] Age-specific contributions to changes in the period and cohort life expectancy
	[12-3] Intrinsically dynamic population models
	[9-1] Estimating multistate transition rates from population distributions
	[6-3] On the Impact of Spatial Momentum
	[4-6] Toward a General Model for Populations with Changing Rates

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