Volume 9 - Article 6 | Pages 111-118

A diminishing population whose every cohort more than replaces itself

By Robert Schoen, Stefan H. Jonsson

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter

 

 
Date received:13 Jun 2003
Date published:15 Oct 2003
Word count:1623
Keywords:Bongaarts-Feeney adjusted fertility, cohort analysis, cohort fertility, dynamic population model, fertility, fertility timing, period fertility
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2003.9.6
 

Abstract

We observe that a dynamic population model can have period fertility that is always below replacement and cohort fertility that is always above replacement. We ask whether such a paradoxical population will get larger or smaller, and show that it must become smaller. Cohort replacement does not imply population replacement, and emphasizing fertility timing and cohort fertility ignores the issue of relative cohort size. The resolution of this apparent paradox reinforces the importance of the level of period fertility in demographic analysis.

Author's Affiliation

Robert Schoen - Pennsylvania State University, United States of America [Email]
Stefan H. Jonsson - Pennsylvania State University, United States of America [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» A dynamic birth-death model via Intrinsic Linkage
Volume 28 - Article 35

» Age-specific growth, reproductive values, and intrinsic r
Volume 24 - Article 33

» The metastable birth trajectory
Volume 21 - Article 25

» A behaviorally-based approach to measuring inequality
Volume 19 - Article 49

» Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy
Volume 13 - Article 5

» Age-specific contributions to changes in the period and cohort life expectancy
Volume 13 - Article 3

» Intrinsically dynamic population models
Volume 12 - Article 3

» Estimating multistate transition rates from population distributions
Volume 9 - Article 1

» On the Impact of Spatial Momentum
Volume 6 - Article 3

» Toward a General Model for Populations with Changing Rates
Volume 4 - Article 6

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe: Evidence from the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden
Volume 8 - Article 6    | Keywords: cohort analysis, fertility, fertility timing, period fertility

» Estimating male fertility in eastern and western Germany since 1991: A new lowest low?
Volume 35 - Article 53    | Keywords: fertility, fertility timing

» The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries
Volume 31 - Article 46    | Keywords: cohort analysis, fertility

» Age-specific fertility by educational level in the Finnish male cohort born 1940‒1950
Volume 31 - Article 5    | Keywords: cohort analysis, fertility timing

» Fertility and marriage behavior in Israel: Diversity, change, and stability
Volume 28 - Article 17    | Keywords: cohort analysis, fertility