TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sevcikova, Hana
A1  - Gerland, Patrick
A1  - Raftery, Adrian E.
T1  - Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates
Y1  - 2018/06/08
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 1843
EP  - 1884
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.60
VL  - 38
IS  - 60
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/60/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/60/38-60.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/60/38-60.pdf
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/60/files/readme.38-60.txt
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/60/files/38-60_supplementary%20materials.pdf
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/60/files/demographic-research.38-60.zip
N2  - Background: We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertility rate (TFR) for subnational regions. 

Objective: We seek a method that is consistent with the UN’s recently adopted Bayesian method for probabilistic TFR projections for all countries and works well for all countries. 

Methods: We assess various possible methods using subnational TFR data for 47 countries. 

Results: We find that the method that performs best in terms of out-of-sample predictive performance and also in terms of reproducing the within-country correlation in TFR is a method that scales each national trajectory from the national predictive posterior distribution by a region-specific scale factor that is allowed to vary slowly over time. 

Conclusions: Probabilistic projections of TFR for subnational units are best produced by scaling the national projection by a slowly time-varying region-specific scale factor. This supports the hypothesis of Watkins (1990, 1991) that within-country TFR converges over time in response to country-specific factors, and thus extends the Watkins hypothesis to the last
50 years and to a much wider range of countries around the world. 

Contribution: We have developed a new method for probabilistic projection of subnational TFR that works well and outperforms other methods. This also sheds light on the extent to which within-country TFR converges over time. 

ER  -