TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hargens, Lowell
T1  - Incidence of first-marriage divorce among women in the 1979 panel of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth
Y1  - 2019/06/19
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 1529
EP  - 1536
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2019.40.52
VL  - 40
IS  - 52
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/52/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/52/40-52.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/52/40-52.pdf
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/52/files/readme.40-52.txt
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol40/52/files/demographic-research.40-52.zip
N2  - Objective: This study seeks to determine whether the likelihood of first-marriage divorce among a cohort of women who have been adults during the years of the US 'divorce plateau' matches the level implied by period rates of first-marriage divorce during those years. 

Methods: I use marital histories for women in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) to examine the current status of their first marriages and also carry out a survival analysis that takes into account right censoring and the competing risks of death and widowhood. 

Results: It is likely that at least half of the first marriages of the women in the NLSY79 sample have already ended in divorce, a level notably higher than those implied by analyses based on period rates. 

Contribution: This is the first study to examine the marital histories of a cohort US women who are now in their late 50s and the first to show a level of first-marriage divorce exceeding 50%. It also suggests that the pattern of change in US age-specific divorce rates over that past four decades accounts for the higher than expected level of first-marriage divorce shown by the NLSY79 women. 

ER  -