TY  - JOUR
A1  - Oshio, Takashi
T1  - Is a positive association between female employment and fertility still spurious in developed countries?
Y1  - 2019/11/21
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 1277
EP  - 1288
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2019.41.45
VL  - 41
IS  - 45
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol41/45/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol41/45/41-45.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol41/45/41-45.pdf
N2  - Background: The cross-sectional association between female employment and fertility across developed countries turned from negative to positive during the mid-1980s. The conventional view is that the observed positive association is spurious owing to country-specific heterogeneity. 

Objective: We revisit the validity of this view using recent data up to 2017 from 24 countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). 

Methods: Based on the data downloaded from the OECD database, we estimate the time-series association between the female labor force participation rate (FLFP) and total fertility rate (TFR) by fixed-effects regression models, which can control for country-specific heterogeneity. 

Results: The more recent the data set used, the more likely it is that the time-series correlation will be positive between FLFP and TFR, even after controlling for country-specific heterogeneity. We also observe that public spending on families, especially in the form of benefits in kind, starts increasing once FLFP becomes sufficiently high. 

Conclusions: A positive correlation between female employment and fertility in developed countries is no longer attributable to country-specific heterogeneity. The results are supportive of the view that higher female employment can make socioinstitutional contexts more favorable for childbearing, leading to a positive association between FLFP and TFR. 

Contribution: This study underscored the need for further investigation of the association between female employment and fertility, which is likely to have changed in recent decades. 

ER  -