@article{Johnson_14_22,
author = {Johnson, Leigh F. and Dorrington, Rob},
title={{Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions}},
journal = {Demographic Research},
volume = {14},
number = {22},
pages = {541--574},
doi = {10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.22},
year = {2006},
abstract = {This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time. 

HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.},
URL = {https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/22/},
eprint = {https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/22/14-22.pdf}
}