TY  - JOUR
A1  - Johnson, Leigh F.
A1  - Dorrington, Rob
T1  - Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions
Y1  - 2006/06/30
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 541
EP  - 574
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.22
VL  - 14
IS  - 22
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/22/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/22/14-22.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/22/14-22.pdf
N2  - This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time. 

HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.

ER  -