@article{Sasson_44_16,
author = {Sasson, Isaac},
title={{Age and COVID-19 mortality: A comparison of Gompertz doubling time across countries and causes of death}},
journal = {Demographic Research},
volume = {44},
number = {16},
pages = {379--396},
doi = {10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.16},
year = {2021},
abstract = {Background: Demographers have emphasized the importance of age in explaining the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on mortality. However, the relationship between COVID-19 mortality and age should be contextualized in relation to other causes of death. 

Objective: To compare the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality with other causes of death and across countries, and to use these regularities to impute age-specific death counts in countries with limited data. 

Methods: The COVID-19 mortality doubling time in a Gompertz context was compared with 65 major causes of death using US vital statistics. COVID-19 fatality doubling time was similarly compared across 27 countries and used for estimating death counts by age in Israel as a case in point. 

Results: First, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age at a Gompertz rate near the median of aging-related causes of death, as well as pneumonia and influenza. Second, COVID-19 mortality levels are 2.8 to 8.2 times higher than pneumonia and influenza across the adult age range. Third, the relationship between both COVID-19 mortality and fatality and age varies considerably across countries. 

Conclusions: The increase in COVID-19 mortality with age resembles the population rate of aging. Country differences in the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality and fatality may point to differences in underlying population health, standards of clinical care, or data quality. 

Contribution: This study underscores the need to contextualize the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality in relation to other causes of death. Furthermore, it demonstrates how to estimate age-specific COVID-19 deaths in countries with limited data availability. },
URL = {https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol44/16/},
eprint = {https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol44/16/44-16.pdf}
}