TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sasson, Isaac
T1  - Age and COVID-19 mortality: A comparison of Gompertz doubling time across countries and causes of death
Y1  - 2021/02/17
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 379
EP  - 396
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.16
VL  - 44
IS  - 16
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol44/16/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol44/16/44-16.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol44/16/44-16.pdf
N2  - Background: Demographers have emphasized the importance of age in explaining the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on mortality. However, the relationship between COVID-19 mortality and age should be contextualized in relation to other causes of death. 

Objective: To compare the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality with other causes of death and across countries, and to use these regularities to impute age-specific death counts in countries with limited data. 

Methods: The COVID-19 mortality doubling time in a Gompertz context was compared with 65 major causes of death using US vital statistics. COVID-19 fatality doubling time was similarly compared across 27 countries and used for estimating death counts by age in Israel as a case in point. 

Results: First, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age at a Gompertz rate near the median of aging-related causes of death, as well as pneumonia and influenza. Second, COVID-19 mortality levels are 2.8 to 8.2 times higher than pneumonia and influenza across the adult age range. Third, the relationship between both COVID-19 mortality and fatality and age varies considerably across countries. 

Conclusions: The increase in COVID-19 mortality with age resembles the population rate of aging. Country differences in the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality and fatality may point to differences in underlying population health, standards of clinical care, or data quality. 

Contribution: This study underscores the need to contextualize the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality in relation to other causes of death. Furthermore, it demonstrates how to estimate age-specific COVID-19 deaths in countries with limited data availability. 

ER  -