@article{Ghio_46_9,
author = {Ghio, Daniela and Goujon, Anne and Natale, Fabrizio},
title={{Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories}},
journal = {Demographic Research},
volume = {46},
number = {9},
pages = {261--272},
doi = {10.4054/DemRes.2022.46.9},
year = {2022},
abstract = {Background: Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories because of distinctive demographic and spatial dynamics. 

Objective: We study the relative contribution of cohort turnover and migration flows in shaping the demographic evolution of the working-age population at the local level. 

Methods: Using Eurostat data, we decompose the changes that have occurred in the working-age population into cohort turnover and net migration effects for the 2015–2019 period, at territorial (NUTS3 and urban-intermediate-rural) levels. 

Results: The majority (63%) of European (NUTS3) territories experienced negative cohort turnover effects alongside positive net migration effects during the 2015–2019 period. However, in only 27% of these territories, net migration counterbalanced the deficit in the working-age population due to cohort turnover. 

Conclusions: In 2015–2019, migration was the underlying force in the evolution of the working-age population, partially compensating for the loss of population due to the cohort turnover. This effect was particularly pronounced in urban areas. 

Contribution: Our contribution is twofold. First, we map EU NUTS3 territories where the working-age population is declining rapidly. Second, we give an assessment of the varied role of migration in mitigating the effect of ageing and shrinking working-age populations across EU urban, intermediate, and rural areas. },
URL = {https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol46/9/},
eprint = {https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol46/9/46-9.pdf}
}