TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ghio, Daniela
A1  - Goujon, Anne
A1  - Natale, Fabrizio
T1  - Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories
Y1  - 2022/02/17
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 261
EP  - 272
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2022.46.9
VL  - 46
IS  - 9
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol46/9/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol46/9/46-9.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol46/9/46-9.pdf
N2  - Background: Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories because of distinctive demographic and spatial dynamics. 

Objective: We study the relative contribution of cohort turnover and migration flows in shaping the demographic evolution of the working-age population at the local level. 

Methods: Using Eurostat data, we decompose the changes that have occurred in the working-age population into cohort turnover and net migration effects for the 2015–2019 period, at territorial (NUTS3 and urban-intermediate-rural) levels. 

Results: The majority (63%) of European (NUTS3) territories experienced negative cohort turnover effects alongside positive net migration effects during the 2015–2019 period. However, in only 27% of these territories, net migration counterbalanced the deficit in the working-age population due to cohort turnover. 

Conclusions: In 2015–2019, migration was the underlying force in the evolution of the working-age population, partially compensating for the loss of population due to the cohort turnover. This effect was particularly pronounced in urban areas. 

Contribution: Our contribution is twofold. First, we map EU NUTS3 territories where the working-age population is declining rapidly. Second, we give an assessment of the varied role of migration in mitigating the effect of ageing and shrinking working-age populations across EU urban, intermediate, and rural areas. 

ER  -