TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ette, Andreas
A1  - Kosyakova, Yuliya
A1  - Kothe, Christian
T1  - Settlement intentions of Ukrainian refugees in Germany: Adhering to social status back home or restarting again abroad?
Y1  - 2026/03/13
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 481
EP  - 520
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.16
VL  - 54
IS  - 16
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/16/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/16/54-16.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/16/54-16.pdf
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/16/files/54-16%20supplementary%20material.pdf
N2  - Background: The choice between permanent settlement and temporary migration has garnered increased attention in international migration studies, yet the decisions of refugees remain underexplored. 

Objective: Building on the existing literature on return migration among voluntary migrants, this paper investigates the importance of socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts in refugees’ home and host countries for their settlement intentions. 

Methods: We use the register-based probability sample of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP survey on Ukrainian refugees in Germany following the Russian invasion of February 2022. We employ linear probability regression models and sheaf coefficient analyses. 

Results: Similar to voluntary migrants, socio-psychological context shapes the settlement decisions of forced migrants. However, Ukrainian refugees who intend to settle are more economically disadvantaged than their counterparts, exhibiting differences in education, financial status, and welfare dependency. Notably, the highly educated and previously economically successful express a strong desire to return due to significant losses incurred as a result of the conflict. 

Conclusions: Both socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts significantly shape refugees’ settlement intentions, with economic factors proving slightly more influential, especially for men. That economic disadvantage challenges traditional hypotheses about settlement and return highlights the gendered and volatile conditions of the conflict. 

Contribution: This paper extends the general literature on the settlement and return migration processes of voluntary migrants to the specific context of forced migration. Moreover, it conceptually differentiates between and empirically compares the relative importance of socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts in refugees’ countries of origin and destination. 

ER  -