TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zhou, Shuai
A1  - Chi, Guangqing
A1  - Liao, Chuan
T1  - Spatial perspective on environmental migration: Empirical insights from a spatiotemporal approach in the United States, 1970–2010
Y1  - 2026/04/22
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 835
EP  - 876
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.27
VL  - 54
IS  - 27
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/27/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/27/54-27.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/27/54-27.pdf
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/27/files/readme.54-27.txt
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol54/27/files/demographic-research.54-27.zip
N2  - Background: Despite the growth of environmental migration studies in recent decades, spatial analyses examining the impact of climate variability on migration within the United States at a finer geographical scale remain limited. 

Objective: This study aims to investigate the environmental aspects of migration and explore the heterogeneous impacts of the environment on age- and place-specific migration patterns at the county level in the United States using spatial methods. 

Methods: We employed spatial techniques to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation variability on county-level net migration rates (NMRs) across age groups and rural/urban counties in the United States. 

Results: As temperature anomalies increase, nonmetropolitan counties experience a greater decline in NMRs compared to metropolitan counties, indicating that nonmetropolitan areas may be more sensitive to rising temperatures in terms of population change. The age-specific models revealed distinct migration patterns among working-age and older adults, with the NMRs of working-age adults showing a decreasing trend as temperature anomalies increase. In contrast, the NMRs of older adults show an increasing trend primarily in counties with historically cool climates. 

Conclusions: This study reveals that environmental factors, particularly temperature anomalies, influence migration patterns in the United States, with older adults exhibiting greater net migration in warmer and rural counties while working-age adults experience less net migration as temperature anomalies increase. 

Contribution: This study contributes to the environmental migration literature by employing spatial analysis to explore heterogeneous environmental impacts across age groups and locations in the United States at a finer geographic scale. 

ER  -