TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sirniö, Outi
A1  - Salokangas, Henri
A1  - Moisio, Pasi
A1  - Hiilamo, Heikki
T1  - The impact of reducing welfare obstacles on union formation and dissolution among the unemployed: Evidence from the Finnish Basic Income Experiment
Y1  - 2026/10/02
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 665
EP  - 678
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2026.55.21
VL  - 55
IS  - 21
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol55/21/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol55/21/55-21.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol55/21/55-21.pdf
N2  - Background: Enhancing the employment prospects of the long-term unemployed is a widely shared objective of many welfare reforms. However, welfare reforms may have unintended consequences for family dynamics. Previous guaranteed income experiments in North America led to a debate on their negative impact on marital outcomes. This question has not yet been tested in a Nordic welfare state. 

Objective: This study evaluates the Finnish Basic Income Experiment (FBIE), focusing on its impact on union formation and dissolution. The FBIE was the first nationwide, non-voluntary randomized experiment on basic income in an advanced economy, conducted from 2017 to 2018. Accordingly, we explore whether reducing administrative barriers, conditionality, and welfare traps among the unemployed affect union dynamics in Finland. We focus on both marriages and cohabiting unions. 

Methods: We utilize comprehensive administrative register-based data for both the participants of the experiment (N = 1,999) and their control group (N = 173,042). We estimate the impact of experiment participation using linear probability and Cox proportional hazards models. Our analyses cover the experimental period (2017–2018) and the post-experimental period (2019–2020). 

Results: We find no evidence that the FBIE altered union formation or dissolution across measures of any union, marriage, cohabitation, or associated transitions. 

Contribution: Modest welfare reforms in advanced welfare systems seem to not alter family formation or dissolution patterns. 

ER  -