TY  - JOUR
A1  - Paas, Tanel
A1  - Puur, Allan
A1  - Gortfelder, Mark
T1  - The impact of increased child benefits on tempo and quantum of fertility in Estonia
Y1  - 2026/10/22
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 811
EP  - 846
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2026.55.25
VL  - 55
IS  - 25
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol55/25/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol55/25/55-25.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol55/25/55-25.pdf
N2  - Background: On July 1, 2017, Estonia introduced a substantial child allowance for families with three or more children, supplementing regular child benefits. This universal, non-means-tested benefit aimed to alleviate financial burdens for larger families and encourage third and higher-order births. 

Objective: We examine the impact of this reform on the likelihood and timing of third births. We hypothesise that the Estonian child benefit reform had a positive impact, given that the total allowances for a family with three children amounted to 41% of the average salary at the time of implementation. 

Methods: We analyse longitudinal register data using a mixture cure model embedded within a difference-in-differences framework, which allows us to distinguish between changes in the probability of having a third child and changes in the timing of third births. 

Results: We find evidence that the reform was associated with a shortening of the time to third birth by nearly a quarter and a 4 percentage point increase in the probability of a third birth, corresponding to an 11% rise relative to the baseline third birth probability (37%). 

Conclusions: The results suggest that a generous child allowance can be linked to changes in both the timing and the likelihood of higher-order births. 

Contribution: The study contributes to the broader literature analysing the effects of family benefits on fertility by providing new evidence from longitudinal register data on the association between a generous, universal child benefit and changes in the timing and likelihood of third births in a low fertility context. 

ER  -