@article{Schmertmann2014,
author = {Schmertmann, C. and Zagheni, E. and Goldstein, J.R. and Myrskylä, M.},
title= {Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility},
year = {2014},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association },
volume = {109},
number = {506},
pages = {500--513},
}