Volume 20 - Article 20 | Pages 495–502  

The number of centenarians in Brazil: Indirect estimates based on death certificates

By Marilia Miranda Fortes Gomes, Cássio M. Turra

Abstract

The Brazilian population is rapidly aging. As a result, the number of centenarians has grown steadily, about 77 per cent between 1991 and 2000. Although expected, the increasing number of centenarians may be exaggerated by data quality issues. We compare the recorded centenarian population in the 1991 census with indirect estimates based on the extinct generation method. We find three times more people in the census than according to the indirect estimates. Uncertainty about the true size of old-age populations has important implications in data-deficient countries, particularly in the estimation of adult mortality.

Author's Affiliation

• Marilia Miranda Fortes Gomes - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Brazil EMAIL
• Cássio M. Turra - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Brazil EMAIL

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