Volume 21 - Article 14 | Pages 385–426
150 Years of temperature-related excess mortality in the Netherlands
By Peter Ekamper, Frans van Poppel, Coen van Duin, Joop Garssen
References
Analitis, A., Katsouyanni, K., Biggeri, A., Baccini, M., Forsberg, B., Bisanti, L., Kirchmayer, U., Ballester, F., Cadum, E., Goodman, P.G., Hojs, A., Sunyer, J., Tiittanen, P., and Michelozzi, P. (2008). Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality: Results From 15 European Cities Within the PHEWE Project. American Journal of Epidemiology 168(12): 1397-1408.
Baccini, M., Biggeri, A., Accetta, G., Kosatsky, T., Katsouyanni, K., Analitis, A., Anderson, H.R., Bisanti, L., D'Ippoliti, D., Danova, J., Forsberg, B., Medina, S., Paldy, A., Rabczenko, D., Schindler, C., and Michelozzi, P. (2008). Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology 19(5): 711-719 .
Ballester, F., Michelozzi, P., and Iniguez, C. (2003). Weather, climate, and public health. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 57(10): 759-760.
Bengtsson, T. (2004). Living standards and economic stress. In: Bengtsson, T., Campbell, C., and Lee, J. (eds.). Life under pressure: Mortality and living standards in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press: 27-60.
Braga, A.L.F., Zanobetti, A., and Schwartz, J. (2001). The time course of weather-related deaths. Epidemiology 12(6): 662-667.
Breschi, M. and Livi-Bacci, M. (1994). Le mois de naissance comme facteur de survie des enfants. Annales de Démographie Historique : 169-185.
Cameron, A.C. and Trivedi, P.K. (1998). Regression analysis of count data. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Cameron, A.C. and Windmeijer, F.A.G. (1996). R-Squared measures for count data regression models with applications to health-care utilization. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 14(2): 209-220.
Carson, C., Hajat, S., Armstrong, B., and Wilkinson, P. (2006). Declining vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in London over the 20th century. American Journal of Epidemiology 164(1): 77-84.
De Lange, C. (1913). De zuigelingensterfte aan voedingsstoornissen en stuipen te Amsterdam gedurende het derde kwartaal van 1911. Nederlands Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde 57(2): 91-114.
Donaldson, G.C. and Keatinge, W.R. (2003). Cold related mortality in England and Wales; influence of social class in working and retired age groups. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 57(10): 790-791.
Eilers, P.H.C. , Gampe, J. , Marx, B.D., and Rau, R. (2008). Modulation models for seasonal time series and incidence tables. Statistics in Medicine 27(17): 3430-3441 (10.1002/sim.3188).
Fildes, V. (1998). Infant feeding practices and infant mortality in England, 1900-1919. Continuity and Change 13(2): 251-280.
Galloway, P.R. (1988). Basic patterns in annual variations in fertility, nuptiality, mortality, and prices in pre-industrial Europe. Population Studies 42(2): 275-303.
Galloway, P.R. (1994). Secular changes in the short-term preventive, positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909. Climatic Change 26(1): 3-63.
Gampe, J. and Rau, R. (2004). Seasonal variation in death counts: P-spline smoothing in the presence of overdispersion. In: Biggeri, A., Dreassi, E., and Marchi, M. (eds.). Statistical modelling: proceedings of the 19th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Florence (Italy), July 4-8, 2004. Florence: Firenze University Press: 405–409.
Gezondheidscommissie 's-Gravenhage (1913). Kindersterfte in verband met voedingswijze en sociale omstandigheden, te 's-Gravenhage en Scheveningen (onderzoek 1908 t/m 1912) en middelen ter verbetering. 's-Gravenhage: Gebr. Belinfante.
Gill, J.S., Davies, P., Gill, S.K., and Beevers, D.G. (1988). Wind-chill and the seasonal variation of cerebrovascular disease. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 41(3): 225-230.
Haines, A., Kovats, R.S., Campbell-Lendrum, D., and Corvalan, C. (2006). Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation. The Lancet 367(9528): 2101-2109.
Hajat, S., Kovats, R.S., and Lachowycz, K. (2007). Heat-related and cold-related deaths in England and Wales: who is at risk? Occupational and Environmental Medicine 64(2): 93-100.
Hare, E.H., Moran, P.A., and Macfarlane, A. (1981). The changing seasonality of infant deaths in England and Wales 1912-78 and its relation to seasonal temperature. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 35(2): 77-82.
Healy, J.D. (2003). Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 57(10): 784-789.
Heijboer, D. and Nellestijn, J. (2002). Klimaatatlas van Nederland. De normaalperiode 1971-2000. Rijswijk: Uitgeverij Elmar.
Heynsius van den Berg, M.R. (1912). Hoe hebben de zuigelingen in enkele Nederlandsche steden den warme den warmen zomer van 1911 doorstaan? Nederlandsch Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde 56(2): 907-920.
Huynen, M.M.T.E., Martens, P., Schram, D., Weijenberg, M.P., and Kunst, A.E. (2001). The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population. Environmental Health Perspectives 109(5): 463-470.
Kalkstein, L.S. and Davis, R.E. (1989). Weather and human mortality: An evaluation of demographic and interregional responses in the United States. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 79(1): 44 - 64.
Keatinge, W.R., Coleshaw, S.R.K., and Holmes, J. (1989). Changes in seasonal mortalities with improvement in home heating in England and Wales from 1964 to 1984. International Journal of Biometeorology 33(2): 71-76.
Keatinge, W.R. and Donaldson, G.C. (2004). The impact of global warming on health and mortality. Southern Medical Journal 97(11): 1093-1099.
Keatinge, W.R., Donaldson, G.C., Bucher, K., Jendritsky, G., Cordioli, E., Martinelli, M., Dardanoni, L., Katsouyanni, K., Kunst, A.E., Mackenbach, J.P., McDonald, C., Nayha, S., and Vuori, I. (1997). Cold exposure and winter mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, and all causes in warm and cold regions of Europe. The Lancet 349(9062): 1341-1346.
Keatinge, W.R., Donaldson, G.C., Cordioli, E., Martinelli, M., Kunst, A.E., Mackenbach, J.P., Nayha, S., and Vuori, I. (2000). Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study. British Medical Journal 321(7262): 670-673.
KNMI (2009). Daggegevens van het weer in Nederland [electronic resource]. De Bilt: KNMI.
Kunst, A.E., Groenhof, F., and Mackenbach, J.P. (1994). The association between two windchill indices and daily mortality variation in The Netherlands. American Journal of Public Health 84(11): 1738-1742.
Kunst, A.E., Looman, C.W.N., and Mackenbach, J.P. (1993). Outdoor air temperature and mortality in the Netherlands: a time-series analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology 137(3): 331-341.
Kunst, A.E., Looman, C.W.N., and Mackenbach, J.P. (1991). The decline in winter excess mortality in The Netherlands. International Journal of Epidemiology 20(4): 971-977.
Laake, K. and Sverre, J.M. (1996). Winter excess mortality: a comparison between Norway and England plus Wales. Age Ageing 25(5): 343-348.
Lambert, A.M. (1985). The making of the Dutch landscape. A historical geography of the Netherlands. London etc.: Academic Press.
Landers, John (1986). Mortality, weather and prices in London 1675-1825: a study of short-term fluctuations. Journal of Historical Geography 12(4): 347-364.
Lerchl, A. (1998). Changes in the seasonality of mortality in Germany from 1946 to 1995: the role of temperature. International Journal of Biometeorology 42(2): 84-88.
Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M., and Wanner, H. (2004). European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science 303(5663): 1499-1503.
Marcuzzi, G. and Tasso, M. (1992). Seasonality of death in the period 1889-1988 in the Val di Scalve (Bergamo Pre-Alps, Lombardia, Italy). Human Biology 64(2): 215-222.
McCullagh, P. and Nelder, J.A. (1989). Generalized linear models. London, UK: Chapman and Hall.
McDowall, M. (1981). Long term trends in seasonal mortality. Population Trends 26(4): 16-19.
McKee, C.M. (1989). Deaths in winter: Can Britain learn from Europe? European Journal of Epidemiology 5(2): 178-182.
McMichael, A.J., Wilkinson, P., Kovats, R.S., Pattenden, S., Hajat, S., Armstrong, B., Vajanapoom, N., Niciu, E.M., Mahomed, H., Kingkeow, C., Kosnik, M., O'Neill, M.S., Romieu, I., Ramirez-Aguilar, M., Barreto, M.L., Gouveia, N., and Nikiforov, B. (2008). International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project. International Journal of Epidemiology 37(5): 1121-1131.
Miaou, S.P. (1996). Measuring the goodness-of-fit of accident prediction models. Washington, D.C.: Federal Highway Administration (FHWA Report; FHWA-RD-96-040).
Miaou, S.P., Lu, A., and Lum, H. (1996). Pitfalls of using R2 to evaluate goodness of fit of accident prediction models. Transportation Research Record 1542: 6-13.
Oris, M., Derosas, R., and Breschi, M. (2004). Infant and child mortality. In: Bengtsson, T., Campbell, C., and Lee, J. (eds.). Life under pressure: Mortality and living standards in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press: 359-398.
Parton, W.J. and Logan, J.A. (1981). A model for diurnal variation in soil and air temperature. Agricultural Meteorology 23(3): 205-216.
Pattenden, S., Nikiforov, B., and Armstrong, B.G. (2003). Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 57(8): 628-633.
Pous Koolhaas, C.P. (1869). De kindersterfte in den zomer van 1868. Tijdschrift Gezondheidsleer 13(3): 112-114.
Priester, P.R. (1998). Geschiedenis van de Zeeuwse landbouw circa 1600-1910. Wageningen: AAG Bijdragen.
Rey, G., Fouillet, A., Jougla, E., and Hémon, D. (2007). Vagues de chaleur, fluctuations ordinaires des températures et mortalité en France depuis 1971. Population-Paris 62(3): 533-564.
Rombouts, K.H. (1902). Beschouwingen over het geboorte-en kindersterftecijfer van Nederland gedurende het tijdvak 1875-1899. Harlingen: S.W. Houtsma.
Rooney, C., McMichael, A.J., Kovats, R.S., and Coleman, M.P. (1998). Excess mortality in England and Wales, and in Greater London, during the 1995 heatwave. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 52(8): 482-486.
Saltet, R.H. and Falkenburg, P. (1907). Kindersterfte in Nederland (in de jaren 1881-1905). Amsterdam: Müller.
Seretakis, D., Lagiou, P., Lipworth, L., Signorello, L.B., Rothman, K.J., and Trichopoulos, D. (1997). Changing seasonality of mortality from coronary heart disease. JAMA 278(12): 1012-1014.
StataCorp (2007). Stata statistical software: Release 10. College Station, Texas: StataCorp LP.
Vaillant, C.E. (1893). Handboek voor den ambtenaar van den burgerlijken stand. ’s-Gravenhage: Belinfante.
Van De Putte, B. and Miles, A. (2005). A social classification scheme for historical occupational data: partner selection and industrialism in Belgium and England, 1800-1918. Historical Methods 38(2): 61-94.
Van der Hoeven, P.C.T. (1992). Etmaaltemperatuur en dagextremen uit termijnwaarnemingen. De Bilt: KNMI.
Van Duin, C. (2008). Berekening historische etmaaltemperaturen. [unpublished manuscript]. Voorburg: CBS.
Van Engelen, A.F. and Geurts, H.A.M. (1983). Historische weerkundige waarnemingen, Deel III: Een rekenmodel dat het verloop van de temperatuur over een etmaal berekent uit drie termijnmetingen van temperatuur. De Bilt: KNMI.
Van Everdingen Jr., E. (1907). Verband tusschen kindersterfte en hooge temperaturen. In: Verslag van de Gewone Vergadering der Wis - en Natuurkundige Afdeeling van 26 October 1907. Amsterdam: Koninklijke Akademie van Wetenschappen: 274-286.
Van Leeuwen, M.H.D., Maas, I., and Miles, A. (2002). HISCO: Historical international standard classification of occupations. Leuven: Leuven University Press.
Wintle, M.J. (1985). Aspects of religion and society in the province of Zeeland Netherlands in the nineteenth century. [Unpublished PhD thesis]. Hull: University of Hull.