Volume 25 - Article 2 | Pages 39–102  

More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates

By Jason Thomas, Samuel J. Clark

Abstract

This article presents an extension of the cohort component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP that greatly facilitates implementation of the model for parameter estimation and projecting. The Leslie matrix also contains information about the stable tendencies of the corresponding population, such as the stable age distribution and time to stability. We validate our reformulation of the model by comparing parameter estimates obtained through maximum likelihood and bootstrap methods to those presented by Heuveline.

Author’s Affiliation

• Jason Thomas - University of Wisconsin–Madison, United States of America EMAIL
• Samuel J. Clark - Ohio State University, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Volume 27 - Article 26

Male and female sterility in Zambia
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The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
Volume 29 - Article 39

Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa
Volume 26 - Article 15

A general temporal data model and the structured population event history register
Volume 15 - Article 7

Toward a Unified Timestamp with explicit precision
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