Volume 28 - Article 24 | Pages 681–712  

The sequential propensity household projection model

By Tom Wilson


Background: The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the ‘propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsistencies, difficulties in setting living arrangement assumptions, and very limited scenario creation capabilities. Data allowing the application of more sophisticated dynamic household projection models are unavailable in Australia.

Objective: The aim was create a projection model to overcome these shortcomings whilst minimising input data requirements and costs, and retaining the projection outputs users are familiar with.

Methods: The sequential propensity household projection model is proposed. Living arrangement projections take place in a sequence of calculations, with progressively more detailed living arrangement categories calculated in each step. In doing so the model largely overcomes the three serious deficiencies of the standard propensity model noted above.

Results: The model is illustrated by three scenarios produced for one case study State, Queensland. They are: a baseline scenario in which all propensities are held constant to demonstrate the effects of population growth and ageing, a housing crisis scenario where housing affordability declines, and a prosperity scenario where families and individuals enjoy greater real incomes. A sensitivity analysis in which assumptions are varied one by one is also presented.

Conclusions: The sequential propensity model offers a more effective method of producing household and living arrangement projections than the standard propensity model, and is a practical alternative to dynamic projection models for countries and regions where the data and resources to apply such models are unavailable.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Preparing local area population forecasts using a bi-regional cohort-component model without the need for local migration data
Volume 46 - Article 32

Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia
Volume 45 - Article 12

The geographical patterns of birth seasonality in Australia
Volume 43 - Article 40

Subnational population forecasts: Do users want to know about uncertainty?
Volume 41 - Article 13

Visualising the demographic factors which shape population age structure
Volume 35 - Article 29

Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks
Volume 23 - Article 8

Australia's uncertain demographic future
Volume 11 - Article 8

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Internal migration and the de-standardization of the life course: A sequence analysis of reasons for migrating
Volume 46 - Article 12    | Keywords: Australia, Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA), internal migration, life course, sequence analysis

An age–period–cohort approach to disentangling generational differences in family values and religious beliefs: Understanding the modern Australian family today
Volume 45 - Article 20    | Keywords: age-period-cohort effects, Australia, family, generations, HILDA, religious beliefs, social change, values

Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia
Volume 45 - Article 12    | Keywords: Australia, LGBTQ, population projections, sexual minority

Union formation under conditions of uncertainty: The objective and subjective sides of employment uncertainty
Volume 45 - Article 5    | Keywords: Australia, employment, first union

When partners’ disagreement prevents childbearing: A couple-level analysis in Australia
Volume 44 - Article 33    | Keywords: Australia, births, couple disagreement, couple level analysis, couples, intentions, low fertility, reproductive decisions

Cited References: 32

Download to Citation Manager


Google Scholar

Article ID