Volume 31 - Article 44 | Pages 1311–1336  

Ageing dynamics of a human-capital-specific population: A demographic perspective

By Dimiter Philipov, Anne Goujon, Paola Di Giulio

Abstract

Background: Research on how rising human capital affects the consequences of population ageing rarely considers the fact that the human capital of the elderly population is composed in a specific way that is shaped by their earlier schooling and work experience. For an elderly population of a fixed size and age-sex composition, this entails that the higher its human capital, the greater the total amount of public pensions to be paid.

Objective: The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the link between human capital and retiree benefits and its effect on population ageing from a demographic viewpoint.

Methods: We construct an old age dependency ratio (OADR), in which each person, whether in the numerator or the denominator, is assigned the number of units corresponding to his/her level of human capital. Based on data for Italy, we study the dynamics of this human-capital-specific OADR with the help of multistate population projections to 2107.

Results: Our results show that under specific conditions a constant or moderately growing human capital may aggravate the consequences of population ageing rather than alleviate them.

Conclusions: With those findings, the authors would like to stimulate the debate on the search for demographic and/or socio-economic solutions to the challenges posed by population ageing.

Author's Affiliation

• Dimiter Philipov - Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Austria EMAIL
• Anne Goujon - Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Austria EMAIL
• Paola Di Giulio - Vienna Institute of Demography (Austrian Academy of Sciences), Austria EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries
Volume 49 - Article 31

Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories
Volume 46 - Article 9

Simulating family life courses: An application for Italy, Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden
Volume 44 - Article 1

The changing pattern of cohabitation: A sequence analysis approach
Volume 40 - Article 42

Exploring the fertility trend in Egypt
Volume 37 - Article 32

Differences by union status in health and mortality at older ages: Results for 16 European countries
Volume 35 - Article 19

Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility: A descriptive overview
Volume 33 - Article 47

Should governments in Europe be more aggressive in pushing for gender equality to raise fertility? The first "NO"
Volume 24 - Article 8

Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050
Volume 22 - Article 15

Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A life table description of recent trends
Volume 19 - Article 62

Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility
Volume 19 - Article 13

Intergenerational family ties and the diffusion of cohabitation in Italy
Volume 16 - Article 14

Pathways to stepfamily formation in Europe: Results from the FFS
Volume 8 - Article 5

Life-table representations of family dynamics in Sweden, Hungary, and 14 other FFS countries: A project of descriptions of demographic behavior
Volume 7 - Article 4

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Frailty at death: An examination of multiple causes of death in four low mortality countries in 2017
Volume 49 - Article 2    | Keywords: aging, causes of mortality, mortality, multiple causes of death

The gender gap in schooling outcomes: A cohort study of young men and women in India
Volume 48 - Article 33    | Keywords: cohort studies, educational attainment, gender, India, secondary education

World population aging as a function of period demographic conditions
Volume 48 - Article 13    | Keywords: aging, demographic transition, population

Migrating to a new country in late life: A review of the literature on international retirement migration
Volume 48 - Article 9    | Keywords: aging, internal migration, retirement, transnationalism

Do the consequences of parental separation for children’s educational success vary by parental education? The role of educational thresholds
Volume 47 - Article 28    | Keywords: divorce, educational attainment, family, Germany, interaction, resource compensation, separation, sibling fixed effects