Volume 35 - Article 46 | Pages 1343–1372  

Fertility and the changing pattern of the timing of childbearing in Colombia

By Ewa Batyra

Abstract

Background: According to the latest 2010 CDHS, Colombia’s total fertility rate (TFR) reached the level of 2.1. Studies show that the long-observed early childbearing pattern there might be changing, in particular for highly educated women, yet detailed analysis of timing of motherhood by birth order is lacking. In low fertility contexts, changes in the timing of childbearing are vital for interpreting period fertility measures and anticipating future trajectories.

Objective: To study the fertility trend in Colombia since 1990 and examine how the timing of childbearing changed by birth order and across cohorts. The relationship between education and timing of motherhood is analysed in depth across cohorts.

Methods: To analyse the trend in fertility and timing of childbearing, order-specific mean age at birth and tempo-adjusted TFR are calculated using CDHS. Discrete-time logit models are fitted to study the transition to first and second births across cohorts and educational groups.

Results: Opposing trends in the timing of first and second births are found, with early transition to motherhood existing alongside postponement of second births. This process and the documented halt to the decrease in the age at first birth contribute to the end of the inflating effect of childbearing timing changes on TFR. Multivariate analysis reveals that norms relating to later transition to motherhood are emerging not only among women with university education but also among women with lower educational levels. Postponement of second births is observed in all educational strata.

Conclusions: With continuation of the documented trends, a depressing effect of the changes in the timing of childbearing on TFR could be expected in Colombia, possibly bringing it to below replacement level.

Author’s Affiliation

• Ewa Batyra - University of Oxford, United Kingdom EMAIL

Similar articles in Demographic Research

Does the women’s employment–fertility U-shape emerge at the local level? Evidence from Italian municipalities
Volume 55 - Article 27    | Keywords: female employment, fertility, gender-equilibrium framework, Italy, local demography, local demography, low fertility

Educational pairings, partners’ economic resources, and second births in Austria
Volume 55 - Article 26    | Keywords: Austria, couples, cure model, fertility, hypogamy, second birth

Projection of family life courses of the descendants of immigrants in England and Wales using microsimulation
Volume 55 - Article 24    | Keywords: England, family, fertility, fertility, microsimulation, migrants, migrants, partnership, population projection, second generation, third generation, United Kingdom, Wales

Local house prices and first births in Belgium: Subgroup variation by education and migration background
Volume 55 - Article 19    | Keywords: Belgium, education, housing, migration background, parenthood

A personal perspective on the history of the World Fertility Survey and The Demographic and Health Surveys Program: An interview with Tom Pullum
Volume 55 - Article 6    | Keywords: Demographic Health Surveys, fertility, fertility, health, mortality, surveys, World Fertility Survey