Volume 36 - Article 48 | Pages 1453–1490
The welfare state and demographic dividends
By Gemma Abío, Concepció Patxot, Miguel Sánchez-Romero, Guadalupe Souto
Abstract
Background: The demographic transition experienced by developed countries produces initial positive effects on economic growth ‒ the first demographic dividend ‒ which can be extended into a second demographic dividend if baby boomers’ savings increase capital accumulation. Nevertheless, aging might reverse this process if dissaving of elderly baby boomers and the pressure on the pay-as-you-go financed welfare state reduce savings and capital.
Objective: The aim of this paper is to evaluate the extent to which demographic dividends in Spain provide an opportunity for the reform of the welfare state system for an aging population.
Methods: We decompose demographic dividends using a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with realistic demography and public transfers from the National Transfer Accounts database. This allows us to capture the endogenous evolution of savings and capital accumulation and, hence, the second demographic dividend.
Results: When baby boomers enter the labor market, the purely demographic support ratio increases and this positive effect is extended by composition changes in the age structure of workers. When they start saving, the second demographic dividend arises, while its total net effect depends both on the strength of the aging process and on transfer size.
Conclusions: The derived decomposition shows that the second demographic dividend might also disappear. Sharp population aging in Spain implies that capital will shrink drastically after 2040. Before this, there seems to be margin for reforms; however, an extension of the welfare state toward the Nordic model would considerably reduce capital.
Contribution: This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of demographics on economic growth by decomposing demographic dividends and investigating the impact of different welfare state transfer systems on the second demographic dividend.
Author's Affiliation
- Gemma Abío - Universitat de Barcelona, Spain EMAIL
- Concepció Patxot - Universitat de Barcelona, Spain EMAIL
- Miguel Sánchez-Romero - Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Austria EMAIL
- Guadalupe Souto - Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain EMAIL
Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research
Intergenerational money and time transfers by gender in Spain: Who are the actual dependents?
Volume 34 - Article 24
How many old people have ever lived?
Volume 36 - Article 54
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
Early life exposure to cigarette smoking and adult and old-age male mortality: Evidence from linked US full-count census and mortality data
Volume 49 - Article 25
| Keywords:
linked census and mortality data,
linked census data,
smoking,
United States of America
Advanced or postponed motherhood? Migrants’ and natives’ gap between ideal and actual age at first birth in Spain
Volume 49 - Article 22
| Keywords:
actual age at first birth,
age at arrival,
fertility,
ideal age at first birth,
international migration,
motherhood,
Spain
Partial fertility recuperation in Spain two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic
Volume 49 - Article 17
| Keywords:
COVID-19,
fertility,
recuperation,
Spain
Geographic proximity to siblings in older adulthood
Volume 49 - Article 7
| Keywords:
geographical proximity,
older adults,
population,
register data,
Sweden
Frailty at death: An examination of multiple causes of death in four low mortality countries in 2017
Volume 49 - Article 2
| Keywords:
aging,
causes of mortality,
mortality,
multiple causes of death
Cited References: 33
Download to Citation Manager
PubMed
Google Scholar