Volume 37 - Article 47 | Pages 1515–1548  

Decomposing American immobility: Compositional and rate components of interstate, intrastate, and intracounty migration and mobility decline

By Thomas B. Foster

Abstract

Background: American migration rates have declined by nearly half since the mid-20th century, but it is not clear why. While the emerging literature on the topic stresses the salience of shifts in the composition of the American population, estimates of the contribution of population aging, increasing diversity, rising homeownership, and other shifts vary widely. Furthermore, it is unclear whether and how compositional shifts differ in their effects on migration over different geographic scales.

Objective: To gauge the contribution of compositional shifts to concomitant declines in migration over various distances, while allowing for group variations in the rates at which declines occur.

Methods: Drawing on individual-level IPUMS Current Population Survey data from 1982 to 2015, I use the Oaxaca–Blinder method to decompose declines in interstate migration, intrastate migration, and intracounty mobility.

Results: Between a quarter and a third of declines since 1982 are attributable to aging and increasing diversity. Changing ethnoracial composition exerts a stronger influence on interstate migration, while aging has a stronger effect on local mobility. Results also reveal more dramatic declines among non-Latino Whites and those under age 35, as well as a marked delay and decline in peak mobility rates with each successive birth cohort.

Conclusions: Results point to social and economic shifts as the key drivers of American immobility, and the need for reorientation within the emerging literature. Future research should investigate the causes of group-specific rates of decline and focus on local mobility, where declines are most concentrated and where rising immobility is most problematic.

Author’s Affiliation

• Thomas B. Foster - University of Washington, United States of America EMAIL

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Where do we go from here? Partnership-parenthood trajectories of cohabitation as first union during young adulthood in the United States
Volume 53 - Article 9    | Keywords: cohabitation, family inequality, fertility, marriage, race/ethnicity, transition to adulthood, union formation, United States of America

The impact of population heterogeneity on the age trajectory of neonatal mortality: A study of US births 2008–2014
Volume 53 - Article 7    | Keywords: frailty, heterogeneity, heterogeneity, infant mortality, mortality, mortality selection, mortality selection, neonatal mortality, United States of America

Uncovering the underlying causes for the narrowing, stalling, and widening Black–White mortality gap from 2000 to 2022 in the United States
Volume 52 - Article 18    | Keywords: cause of death, decomposition, mortality trends, racial disparities, United States of America, years of life lost (YLL)

The changing inter-relationship between partnership dynamics and fertility trends in Europe and the United States: A review
Volume 52 - Article 7    | Keywords: childbearing, Europe, family complexity, fertility, fertility, marriage, partnership, United States of America

A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
Volume 51 - Article 11    | Keywords: age dependency, education, international migration, migration, modelling, population projection, projections