Volume 40 - Article 19 | Pages 503–532  

Combining population projections with quasi-likelihood models: A new way to predict cancer incidence and cancer mortality in Austria up to 2030

By Johannes Klotz, Monika Hackl, Markus Schwab, Alexander Hanika, Daniela Haluza

Abstract

Background: The current demographic changes with a shift toward older ages contribute to more cancer cases in the next decades in Western countries. Thus, forecasting the demand for expected healthcare services and expenditures is relevant for planning purposes and resource allocation.

Objective: In this study, we provide a new method to estimate future numbers of cancer cases (newly diagnosed cancers and cancer deaths) using Austrian data.

Methods: We used 1983–2009 data to estimate cancer burden trends using quasi-Poisson regression models, which we then applied to official population projections up to 2030. Specific regression models were estimated for cancer incidence and mortality, disaggregated by sex and 16 tumor sites.

Results: The absolute number of cancer cases increased continuously during the last decades in Austria. The trend will also continue in the near future, as the number of newly diagnosed cancers and cancer deaths will increase by +14% and +16% between 2009 and 2030. Age-standardized individual risk of being newly diagnosed with or die from cancer will be substantially lower in 2030 compared to 2009 (–14% and –16%, respectively).

Contribution: Our novel method combining population projections with quasi-likelihood models found a falling individual risk for cancer burden in the Austrian population. However, the absolute number of new cancer cases and deaths will increase due to the aging of the population. These estimates should be considered when planning future healthcare demands.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Trends in educational mortality differentials in Austria between 1981/82 and 2001/2002: A study based on a linkage of census data and death certificates
Volume 19 - Article 51

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

On the relationship between life expectancy, modal age at death, and the threshold age of the life table entropy
Volume 51 - Article 24    | Keywords: Gompertz law, life expectancy, lifespan variation, longevity, mode, mortality

The role of sex and age in seasonal mortality – the case of Poland
Volume 51 - Article 17    | Keywords: mortality, Poland, seasonality, sex differences

Projection of US adult obesity trends based on individual BMI trajectories
Volume 51 - Article 13    | Keywords: BMI trajectory reconstruction, obesity, projections, time spent obese

A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
Volume 51 - Article 11    | Keywords: age dependency, education, international migration, migration, modelling, population projection, projections

Data errors in mortality estimation: Formal demographic analysis of under-registration, under-enumeration, and age misreporting
Volume 51 - Article 9    | Keywords: age misreporting, data errors, formal demography, mortality