Volume 42 - Article 30 | Pages 827–858  

The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa

By Mathias Lerch, Thomas Spoorenberg

Abstract

Background: The fertility transition started later in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions of the world. Moreover, the average number of children per woman declined more slowly there, owing to a distinct mechanism of fertility reduction. It has been argued that the fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa proceeded through an increase in birth intervals rather than by a limitation of the number of births.

Objective: We analyze the fertility transitions in 29 countries to determine which mechanism women resort to in order to reduce their number of children.

Methods: Using multiple sample surveys, we estimate and cross-validate trends in parity progression ratios and birth intervals. We identify sub-regional regularities and vanguard trends in the interplay between the dynamics of the lengthening of birth intervals and birth limitation over the period 1962‒2012.

Results: While initial fertility declines were driven by a lengthening of birth intervals at all parities, we observe a recent onset of birth limitation in regions and countries that are most advanced in the fertility transition.

Conclusions: The experience of sub-Saharan Africa shows that if all parities contribute to the fertility transition from the outset, the main drivers of the fertility decline switch from a lengthening of birth intervals to a limitation of family size when the average fertility reaches about five children per woman.

Contribution: Our findings point to the emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. These results have implications for future fertility declines in sub-Saharan Africa.

Author's Affiliation

• Mathias Lerch - École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland EMAIL
• Thomas Spoorenberg - United Nations, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Forty years of fertility changes in the Sahel
Volume 41 - Article 46

Fertility compression in Niger: A study of fertility change by parity (1977–2011)
Volume 39 - Article 24

On the masculinization of population: The contribution of demographic development -- A look at sex ratios in Sweden over 250 years
Volume 34 - Article 37

Reconstructing historical fertility change in Mongolia: Impressive fertility rise before continued fertility decline
Volume 33 - Article 29

Is Buddhism the low fertility religion of Asia?
Volume 32 - Article 1

Reverse survival method of fertility estimation: An evaluation
Volume 31 - Article 9

Old age mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
Volume 29 - Article 38

Patriarchy and fertility in Albania
Volume 29 - Article 6

What can we learn from indirect estimations on mortality in Mongolia, 1969-1989?
Volume 18 - Article 10

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Using Respondent-Driven Sampling to measure abortion safety in restrictive contexts: Results from Kaya (Burkina Faso) and Nairobi (Kenya)
Volume 50 - Article 47    | Keywords: induced abortion, respondents-driven samples, social networks, sub-Saharan Africa

Predictive utility of key family planning indicators on dynamic contraceptive outcomes: Results from longitudinal surveys in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Uganda, and Côte d'Ivoire
Volume 50 - Article 45    | Keywords: contraception, contraceptive adoption, contraceptive discontinuation, contraceptive use, family planning, longitudinal data, methods, panel data, Performance and Monitoring for Action (PMA) surveys, sub-Saharan Africa

The dynamic role of household structure on under-5 mortality in southern and eastern sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 49 - Article 11    | Keywords: child mortality, Health and Demographic Surveillance System, household structure, sub-Saharan Africa

Comparative evidence of years lived with reproductive-age morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa (2010‒2019)
Volume 49 - Article 6    | Keywords: life expectancy, maternal morbidities, reproductive age, sub-Saharan Africa

Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India’s alternative fertility transition
Volume 48 - Article 34    | Keywords: age at birth, fertility transition, India, low fertility, sterilisation