Volume 45 - Article 14 | Pages 453–468  

Is the accuracy of individuals' survival beliefs associated with their knowledge of population life expectancy?

By Adriaan Kalwij, Vesile Kutlu Koc

References

Alessie, R., Hochguertel, S., and Soest, A. (2002). Household portfolios in the Netherlands. In: Guiso, L., Haliassos, M., and Jappelli, T. (eds.). Household portfolios. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press: 341–388.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bago d’Uva, T., O’Donnell, O., and van Doorslaer, E. (2020). Who can predict their own demise? Heterogeneity in the accuracy and value of longevity expectations. Journal of the Economics of Ageing 17: 100–135.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bissonnette, L., Hurd, M.D., and Michaud, P.C. (2017). Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks. Health Economics 26(12): 285–303.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bresser, J. (2019). Measuring subjective survival expectations – Do response scales matter? Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 165: 136–156.

Weblink:
Download reference:

CBS (2020). Microdata Services [electronic resource].

Weblink:
Download reference:

Cox, D.R. (1972). Regression models and life tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological 34(2): 187–220.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Cutler, D.M., Deaton, A.S., and Lleras-Muney, A. (2006). Determinants of mortality. Journal of Economic Perspectives 20(3): 97–120.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Cutler, D.M., Lange, F., Meara, E., Richards-Shubik, S., and Ruhm, C.J. (2011). Rising educational gradients in mortality: The role of behavioral risk factors. Journal of Health Economics 30: 1174–1187.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Delavande, A. and Rohwedder, S. (2011). Differential mortality in Europe and the U.S.: Estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival. Demography 48: 1377–1400.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Elder, T. (2013). The predictive validity of subjective mortality expectations: evidence from the health and retirement study. Demography 50(2): 569–589.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Gan, L., Gong, G., Hurd, M., and McFadden, D. (2004). Subjective mortality risk and bequests. National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper 10789.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the Law of Human Mortality and on a new mode of determining life contingencies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 115: 513–585.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Grevenbrock, N., Groneck, M., Ludwig, A., and Zimper, A. (2020). Cognition, optimism and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs. International Economic Review 62(2): 887–918.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Groneck, M., Ludwig, A., and Zimper, A. (2016). A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs. Journal of Economic Theory 162: 137–180.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Heimer, R.Z., Myrseth, K.O.R., and Schoenle, R.S. (2019). YOLO: Mortality beliefs and household finance puzzles. Journal of Finance 74(6): 2957–2996.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Hurd, M. and McGarry, K. (2002). The predictive validity of subjective probabilities of survival. Economic Journal 112(482): 966–985.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Hurd, M.D. (1989). Mortality risk and bequests. Econometrica 57(4): 779–813.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Hurd, M.D. and McGarry, K. (1995). Evaluating subjective probabilities of survival in the Health and Retirement Study. Journal of Human Resources 30: 268–292.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Kalwij, A., Alessie, R., and Knoef, M. (2013). Individual income and remaining life expectancy at the statutory retirement age of 65 in the Netherlands. Demography 50(1): 181–206.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Kleinjans, C. and Van Soest, A. (2014). Non-response and focal point answers to subjective probability questions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 29(4): 567–585.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Kutlu Koc, V., Alessie, R., and Kalwij, A. (2017). Consumption behavior, annuity income and mortality risk of retirees. De Economist 165(3): 349–380.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Kutlu Koc, V. and Kalwij, A. (2017). Individual survival expectations and actual mortality: Evidence from Dutch survey and administrative data. European Journal of Population 33(4): 509–532.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Lazarsfeld, P.F. (1940). Panel studies. Public Opinion Quarterly 4: 122–128.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Manski, C.F. (2004). Measuring expectations. Econometrica 72(5): 1329–1376.

Weblink:
Download reference:

O’Dea, C. and Sturrock, D. (2020). Survival pessimism and the demand for annuities. The Review of Economics and Statistics .

Weblink:
Download reference:

Olshansky, S.J. and Carnes, A.C. (1997). Ever since Gompertz. Demography 34(1): 1–15.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Oster, E., Shoulson, I., and Dorsey, E.R. (2013). Limited life expectancy, human capital and health investments. American Economic Review 103(5): 1977–2002.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Perozek, M. (2008). Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: Do survey respondents know something we don’t know? Demography 45(1): 95–113.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Royal Dutch Actuarial Association (2019).

Weblink:
Download reference:

Salm, M. (2010). Subjective mortality expectations and consumption and savings behaviours among the elderly. Canadian Journal of Economics 43(3): 1040–1057.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Steffen, B. (2009). Formation and updating of subjective life expectancy: Evidence from Germany. Munich: The Munich Center for the Economics of Aging, MEA Studies 08.

Download reference:

Sturgis, P., Allum, N., and Brunton-Smith, I. (2009). Attitudes over time: The psychology of panel conditioning. In: Lynn, P. (ed.). Methodology of longitudinal surveys. Chichester: Wiley: 113–126.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Teppa, F. (2012). Can the longevity risk alleviate the annuitization puzzle? Empirical evidence from Dutch data. Amsterdam: De Nederlandsche Bank, DNB Working Paper 302.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Vanajan, A., Bültmann, U., and Henkens, K. (2020). Why do older workers with chronic health conditions prefer to retire early? Age and Ageing 49(3): 403–410.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Back to the article