Volume 46 - Article 26 | Pages 737–766  

Slow-downs of fertility decline: When should we call it a 'fertility stall'?

By Michael Grimm, Isabel Günther, Kenneth Harttgen, Stephan Klasen

References

Agyei‐Mensah, S. (2007). New times, new families: The stall in Ghanaian fertility. Paper presented at the African Population Conference, Arusha, Tanzania, December 10–14, 2007.

Download reference:

Agyei‐Mensah, S. (2005). The fertility transition in Ghana revisited. Paper presented at the XXV IUSSP International Population Conference, Tours, France, July 18–23, 2005.

Download reference:

Askew, I., Maggwa, N., and Francis, O. (2017). Fertility transitions in Ghana and Kenya: Trends, determinants, and implications for policy and programs. Population and Development Review 43(S1): 289–307.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Becker, G.S. (1981). A treatise on the family. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Download reference:

Bhalotra, S. and Van Soest, A. (2008). Birth-spacing, fertility and neonatal mortality in India: Dynamics, frailty, and fecundity. Journal of Econometrics 143(2): 274–290.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bloom, D.E. and Williamson, J.G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review 12(3): 419–455.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bongaarts, J. (2017). Africa’s unique fertility transition. Population and Development Review 43(S1): 39–58.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bongaarts, J. (2008). Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? Studies in Family Planning 39(2): 105–110.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bongaarts, J. (2006). The causes of stalling fertility transitions. Studies in Family Planning 37(16): 1–16.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bongaarts, J. and Casterline, J. (2013). Fertility transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa different? Population and Development Review 38(S1): 153–168.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bongaarts, J. and Feeney, G. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review 24(2): 271–291.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Breierova, L. and Duflo, E. (2004). The impact of education on fertility and child mortality: Do fathers really matter less than mothers? Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper 10513.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Canning, D., Günther, I., Linnemayr, S., and Bloom, D. (2013). Fertility choice, mortality expectations, and interdependent preferences: An empirical analysis. European Economic Review 63: 273–289.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Canning, D., Raja, S., and Yazbeck, A.S. (2015). Africa’s demographic transition: Dividend or disaster? Washington, D.C: World Bank.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Chesnais, J. C. (1993). The demographic transition: Stages, patterns, and economic implications: A longitudinal study of sixty-seven countries covering the period 1720–1984. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Download reference:

Chicoine, L. (2012). Education and fertility: Evidence from a policy change in Kenya. Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics, IZA Discussion Papers 6778.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Coale, A.J. (ed.) (1973). The demographic transition reconsidered. Liege: Ordina Editions (International Population Conference, Liege 1973).

Download reference:

Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. New York: Routledge.

Download reference:

Dang, H.H. and Rogers, F.H. (2016). The decision to invest in child quality over quantity: Household size and household investment in education in Vietnam. World Bank Economic Review 30(1): 104–142.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Ezeh, A.C., Mberu, B.U., and Emina, J.O. (2009). Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: Regional analysis of patterns, determinants and implications. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 364(1532): 2991–3007.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Galor, O. (2011). Unified growth theory. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Galor, O. and Weil, D.N. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review 90(4): 806–828.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Galor, O. and Weil, D.N. (1996). The gender gap, fertility, and growth. American Economic Review 86(3): 374–387.

Download reference:

Garenne, M. (2008). Situations of fertility stall in sub-Saharan Africa. African Population Studies 23(2).

Weblink:
Download reference:

Garenne, M., McCaa, R., Odimegwu, C., Adedini, S., and Chemhaka, G. (2015). Reading fertility stalls in census data: The case of Kenya. Paper presented at the Population Association of America 2015 Annual Meeting, San Diego, USA, April 30–May 2, 2015.

Download reference:

Gerland, P., Biddlecom, A., and Kantorová, V. (2017). Patterns of fertility decline and the impact of alternative scenarios of future fertility change in sub‐Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review 43(S1): 21–38.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Goujon, A., Lutz, W., and KC, S. (2015). Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility: A descriptive overview. Demographic Research 33(47): 1281–1296.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Guengant, J.P. (2017). Africa’s population: history, current status and projections. In: Groth, H. and May, J.F. (eds.). Africa’s population: In search of a demographic dividend. Cham: Springer International Publishing: 11–31.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Günther, I. and Harttgen, K. (2016). Desired fertility and number of children born across time and space. Demography 53(1): 55–83.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Heaton, T.B. (2011). Does religion influence fertility in developing countries. Population Research and Policy Review 30(3): 449–465.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Howse, K. (2015). What is fertility stalling and why does it matter? Population Horizons 12(1): 13–23.

Weblink:
Download reference:

International Labour Organization (2020). World employment and social outlook: Trends 2020. Geneva: International Labour Office.

Download reference:

Kebede, E., Goujon, A., and Lutz, W. (2019). Stalls in Africa’s fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116(8): 2891–2896.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Klasen, S. (1999). Does gender inequality reduce growth and development? Evidence from cross-country regressions. Washington, D.C, Policy Research Report on Gender and Development Working Paper 7.

Download reference:

Landry, A. (1982). La révolution démographique: Études et essais sur les problèmes de la population. Paris: INED-Presses Universitaires de France.

Download reference:

Lavy, V. and Zablotsky, A. (2015). Women’s schooling and fertility under low female labor force participation: Evidence from mobility restrictions in Israel. Journal of Public Economics 124(C): 105–121.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Lee, R.D. (2008). Demographic transition. In: Durlauf, S.N. and Blume, L.E. (eds.). The New Palgrave dictionary of economics: Second Edition. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan: 433–438.

Download reference:

Lee, R.D. (1997). Population dynamics: Equilibrium, disequilibrium, and consequences of fluctuations. In: Rosenzweig, M.R. and Stark, O. (eds.). Handbook of population and family economics. Amsterdam: North-Holland: 1063–1115.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Liu, H. (2014). The quality–quantity trade-off: evidence from the relaxation of China’s one-child policy. Journal of Population Economics 27(2): 565–602.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Machiyama, K. (2010). A Re-examination of recent fertility declines in sub-Saharan Africa. Calverton: ICF Macro, DHS Working Paper 68.

Download reference:

McQueston, K., Silverman, R., and Glassman, A. (2012). Adolescent fertility in low- and middle-income countries: Effects and solutions. Washington, D.C: Center for Global Development, CGD Working Paper 295.

Download reference:

Moultrie, A.T., Hosegood, V., McGrath, N., Hill, C., Herbst, K., and Newell, M.L. (2008). Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: an application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990–2005. Studies in Family Planning 39(1): 39–48.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Myrskylä, M., Kohler, H.-P., and Billari, F.C. (2009). Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460(7256): 741–743.

Weblink:
Download reference:

New Security Beat (2013). Why has the demographic transition stalled in sub-Saharan Africa? Washington, D.C.: Environmental Change and Security Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Nobles, J., Frankenberg, E., and Thomas, D. (2014). The effects of mortality on fertility: Population dynamics after a natural disaster. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research , NBER Working Paper 20448.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Notestein, F.W. (1945). Population – The long view. In: Schultz, T.W. (ed.). Food for the World. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 36–57.

Download reference:

Pradhan, E. and Canning, D. (2016). The effect of schooling on teenage fertility: Evidence from the 1994 Education Reform in Ethiopia. Cambridge: Program on the Global Demography of Aging, PGDA Working Papers 12816.

Download reference:

Pullum, T., Assaf, S., and Staveteig, S. (2017). Comparisons of DHS estimates of fertility and mortality with other estimates. Rockville: ICF, DHS Methodological Reports 21.

Download reference:

Pullum, T. and Staveteig, S. (2017). An assessment of the quality and consistency of age and date reporting in DHS surveys, 2000–2015. Rockville: ICF, DHS Methodological Reports 19.

Download reference:

Schoumaker, B. (2014). Quality and consistency of DHS fertility estimates. Rockville: ICF International, DHS Methodological Reports 12.

Download reference:

Schoumaker, B. (2009). Stalls in fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: Real or spurious? Louvain-la-Neuve:: Département des Sciences de la Population et du Développement, Université catholique de Louvain, Document de Travail 30.

Download reference:

Schoumaker, B. (2019). Stalls in fertility transitions in sub‐Saharan Africa: Revisiting the evidence. Studies in Family Planning 50(3): 257–278.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Schoumaker, B. (2012). Tfr2: A Stata module for computing fertility rates and TFRs from birth histories. Paper presented at the Population Association of America 2012 Annual Meeting, San Francisco, USA, May 3–5, 2012.

Download reference:

Schultz, T.P. (1997). Demand for children in low income countries. In: Rosenzweig, M.R. and Stark, O. (eds.). Handbook of population and family economics. Amsterdam: North-Holland: 349–430.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Shapiro, D. and Gebreselassi, T. (2008). Fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa: Falling and stalling. African Population Studies 23(1): 3–23.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Shapiro, D. and Hinde, A. (2017). On the pace of fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa. Demographic Research 37(40): 1327–1338.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Singh, S., Bankole, A., and Darroch, J.E. (2017). The impact of contraceptive use and abortion on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa: Estimates for 2003–2014. Population and Development Review 43(S1): 141–165.

Weblink:
Download reference:

United Nations (2019). World population prospects: The 2019 revision. New York: United Nations.

Download reference:

Wolpin, K.L. (1998). The impact of infant and child mortality risk on fertility. In: Montgomery, M.R. and Cohen, B. (eds.). From death to birth: Mortality decline and reproductive change. Washington D.C: National Academy Press: 74–111.

Download reference:

World Health Organization (1995). Physical status: The use and interpretation of anthropometry. Geneva: World Health Organization, WHO Technical Report 854.

Download reference:

Back to the article