Volume 50 - Article 36 | Pages 1071–1112  

Incorporating subjective survival information in mortality and change in health status predictions: A Bayesian approach

By Apostolos Papachristos, Dimitrios Fouskakis

Abstract

Background: Subjective survival probabilities incorporate individuals’ view about own future survival and they are associated with actual mortality patterns.

Objective: The objective of this study is twofold. First, we apply a Bayesian methodology to incorporate the respondents’ views about future survival, and second, we investigate whether subjective survival information is useful for predicting actual mortality and self-reported change in health.

Methods: To achieve the above-mentioned objective, we adopt a two-step process. In the first step, we use a Bayesian linear regression model, under default priors, on the logit transformation of the subjective mortality probabilities to estimate the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients of the available explanatory variables. In the second step, we fit Bayesian logistic regression models on actual mortality and self-reported change in health, using a variety of priors derived from the posterior distributions of the first step Bayesian model. Data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) Waves 13 and 14 are used in this paper.

Results: We conclude that the additional information incorporated via the subjective mortality probabilities is useful for predicting actual mortality but less useful for predicting selfreported change in health.

Contribution: The contribution of this study relates to the development of a procedure, which can be used to include prior information – based on subjective survival views – in hierarchical Bayesian regression models to improve the ability to predict mortality and self-reported change in health.

Author's Affiliation

• Apostolos Papachristos - National Technical University of Athens, Greece EMAIL
• Dimitrios Fouskakis - National Technical University of Athens, Greece EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Factors incorporated into future survival estimation among Europeans
Volume 42 - Article 2

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

On the relationship between life expectancy, modal age at death, and the threshold age of the life table entropy
Volume 51 - Article 24    | Keywords: Gompertz law, life expectancy, lifespan variation, longevity, mode, mortality

The role of sex and age in seasonal mortality – the case of Poland
Volume 51 - Article 17    | Keywords: mortality, Poland, seasonality, sex differences

Data errors in mortality estimation: Formal demographic analysis of under-registration, under-enumeration, and age misreporting
Volume 51 - Article 9    | Keywords: age misreporting, data errors, formal demography, mortality

Socio-behavioral factors contributing to recent mortality trends in the United States
Volume 51 - Article 7    | Keywords: despair, health, mortality, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), smoking, trends

Climate change and health transitions: Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar
Volume 51 - Article 6    | Keywords: climate change, health transition, historical demography, infectious diseases, mortality