Volume 51 - Article 9 | Pages 229–266  

Data errors in mortality estimation: Formal demographic analysis of under-registration, under-enumeration, and age misreporting

By Carl Schmertmann, Bernardo Lanza Queiroz, Marcos Gonzaga

Abstract

Background: Omissions and misreported ages in both death and exposure data cause bias in mortality and life expectancy estimates. Most discussions of data errors have focused on a single type of error only, and most rely on empirical examples rather than formal analysis.

Objective: We wish to analyze data errors and their interactions in a single, coherent framework in which all three of the major data problems – death under-registration, census underenumeration, and age misreporting – coexist and interact.

Methods: We build a framework for decomposing the biases caused by various data errors in mortality rates and life expectancy calculations. In addition to purely mathematical analysis, we apply the calculations to mortality and population data from Brazil, a country with intermediate data quality.

Conclusions: Analytical and empirical calculations show that biases caused by data errors vary considerably across ages; that age misreporting has very small effects on life expectancy calculations at old ages; and that enumeration and registration errors are likely to cause much larger biases than age misreporting.

Contribution: Combining an explicit analytical structure with empirical examples allows improved understanding of the consequences of data errors for mortality estimates in a wide variety of settings. It also provides insights for further study.

Author’s Affiliation

• Carl Schmertmann - Florida State University, United States of America EMAIL
• Bernardo Lanza Queiroz - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Brazil EMAIL
• Marcos Gonzaga - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Brazil EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Analyzing regional patterns of mortality data quality and adult mortality for small areas in Brazil, 1980–2010
Volume 51 - Article 44

Racial classification as a multistate process
Volume 50 - Article 17

D-splines: Estimating rate schedules using high-dimensional splines with empirical demographic penalties
Volume 44 - Article 45

Revivorship and life lost to mortality
Volume 42 - Article 17

The relation between cardiovascular mortality and development: Study for small areas in Brazil, 2001–2015
Volume 41 - Article 51

Editorial: The past, present, and future of Demographic Research
Volume 41 - Article 41

Stationary populations with below-replacement fertility
Volume 26 - Article 14

Quadratic spline fits by nonlinear least squares
Volume 12 - Article 5

A system of model fertility schedules with graphically intuitive parameters
Volume 9 - Article 5

Estimating Parametric Fertility Models with Open Birth Interval Data
Volume 1 - Article 5

Similar articles in Demographic Research

Bayesian multidimensional mortality reconstruction
Volume 54 - Article 28    | Keywords: Bayesian reconstruction, data lack, hierarchical modelling, mortality

Winter life expectancy reduction in Europe
Volume 54 - Article 26    | Keywords: Europe, excess winter deaths, excess winter mortality paradox, life expectancy, mortality, summer, weekly mortality data, winter

Bringing cause-of-death analysis into demography: An interview with France Meslé
Volume 54 - Article 24    | Keywords: causes of death, epidemiological transition, health transition, mortality, mortality data

Refining seasonal mortality estimates through age adjustment: Evidence from Serbia, 2015–2023
Volume 54 - Article 15    | Keywords: age adjustment, excess mortality, life expectancy, mortality, mortality estimates, seasonal fluctuations, Serbia

Feminicide as a determinant of Mexican female life expectancy in the 21st century
Volume 53 - Article 24    | Keywords: female life expectancy, feminicide, life expectancy, Mexico, mortality, violence, women