Volume 55 - Article 25 | Pages 811–846
The impact of increased child benefits on tempo and quantum of fertility in Estonia
By Tanel Paas, Allan Puur, Mark Gortfelder
References
Aassve, A., Billari, F.C., and Spéder, Z. (2006). Societal transition, policy changes and family formation: Evidence from Hungary. European Journal of Population 22: 127–152.
Abdullayev, S. and Puur, A. (2024). Varying responses to the introduction of earnings-related benefits: A study of 2004 parental leave reform in Estonia. Journal of Population Research 41(4): 1–31.
Ang, X.L. (2015). The effects of cash transfer fertility incentives and parental leave benefits on fertility and labor supply: Evidence from two natural experiments. Journal of Family and Economic Issues 36(2): 263–288.
Angrist, J.D. and Pischke, J.S. (2010). The credibility revolution in empirical economics: How better research design is taking the con out of econometrics. Journal of Economic Perspectives 24(2): 3–30.
Becker, G.S. (1991). A treatise on the family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Becker, G.S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In: Roberts, G.B. (ed.). Demographic and economic change in developed countries. New York: Columbia University Press: 209–240.
Becker, G.S. and Lewis, H.G. (1973). On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy 81(2, Part 2): 279–288.
Bergsvik, J., Fauske, A., and Hart, R.K. (2021). Can policies stall the fertility fall? A systematic review of the (quasi‐)experimental literature. Population and Development Review 47(4): 913–964.
Berkson, J. and Gage, R.P. (1952). Survival curve for cancer patients following treatment. Journal of the American Statistical Association 47(259): 501–515.
Billingsley, S. and Ferrarini, T. (2014). Family policy and fertility intentions in 21 European countries. Journal of Marriage and Family 76(2): 428–445.
Billingsley, S., Neyer, G., and Wesolowski, K. (2022). Social investment policies and childbearing across 20 countries: Longitudinal and micro-level analyses. European Journal of Population 38(5): 951–974.
Boag, J.W. (1949). Maximum likelihood estimates of the proportion of patients cured by cancer therapy. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) 11(1): 15–44.
Boccuzzo, G., Caltabiano, M., Dalla Zuanna, G., and Loghi, M. (2008). The impact of the bonus at birth on reproductive behaviour in a lowest-low fertility context: Friuli-Venezia Giulia (Italy), 1989–2005. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research : 125–147.
Bokun, A. (2024). Cash transfers and fertility: Evidence from Poland’s Family 500+ policy. Demographic Research 51(28): 855–910.
Bradshaw, J. and Attar-Schwartz, S. (2011). Fertility and social policy. In: Takayama, N. and Werding, M. (eds.). Fertility and public policy: How to reverse the trend of declining birth rates. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press: 183–202.
Bremhorst, V., Kreyenfeld, M., and Lambert, P. (2016). Fertility progression in Germany: An analysis using flexible nonparametric cure survival models. Demographic Research 35(18): 505–534.
Breton, D., Prioux, F., and Dutreuilh, C. (2005). Two children or three? Influence of family policy and sociodemographic factors. Population 60(4): 415–445.
Brewer, M., Ratcliffe, A., and Smith, S. (2012). Does welfare reform affect fertility? Evidence from the UK. Journal of Population Economics 25(1): 245–266.
Buxton, A. (2013). CUREREGR: Stata module to estimate parametric cure regression. Statistical Software Components (Available at:).
Central Statistics Bureau of Latvia (2025). Fertility rates (age-specific, total, gross and net reproduction rate, crude birth rate) 1965–2024.
Chuard, C. and Chuard‐Keller, P. (2021). Baby bonus in Switzerland: Effects on fertility, newborn health, and birth‐scheduling. Health Economics 30(9): 2092–2123.
Cohen, A., Dehejia, R., and Romanov, D. (2013). Financial incentives and fertility. Review of Economics and Statistics 95(1): 1–20.
Comolli, C.L. and Bernardi, F. (2015). The causal effect of the Great Recession on childlessness of white American women. IZA Journal of Labor Economics 4(1).
Cowan, S.K. and Wyndham Douds, K. (2022). Examining the effects of a universal cash transfer on fertility. Social Forces 101(2): 1003–1030.
Cukrowska-Torzewska, E. and Grabowska, M. (2023). The sex preference for children in Europe: Children’s sex and the probability and timing of births. Demographic Research 48(8): 203–232.
Drago, R., Sawyer, K., Shreffler, K.M., Warren, D., and Wooden, M. (2011). Did Australia’s baby bonus increase fertility intentions and births? Population Research and Policy Review 30: 381–397.
Elmallakh, N. (2021). Fertility, family policy, and labor supply: Quasi-experimental evidence from France. Essen: Global Labor Organization, GLO Discussion Paper 984.
Estonian Ministry of Social Affairs (2017). Lasterikkad pered hakkavad juulist saama täiendavat toetust. Tallinn: Ministry of Social Affairs.
Eurostat (2025). Crude birth rate (demo_find).
Eurostat (2025). Monthly minimum wages (earn_mw_cur).
Frejka, T. and Zakharov, S. (2013). The apparent failure of Russia’s pronatalist family policies. Population and Development Review 39(4): 635–647.
Gábos, A., Gál, R.I., and Kézdi, G. (2009). The effects of child-related benefits and pensions on fertility by birth order: A test on Hungarian data. Population Studies 63(3): 215–231.
Garganta, S., Gasparini, L., Marchionni, M., and Tappatá, M. (2017). The effect of cash transfers on fertility: Evidence from Argentina. Population Research and Policy Review 36: 1–24.
Gauthier, A.H. and Gietel-Basten, S. (2025). Family policies in low fertility countries: Evidence and reflections. Population and Development Review 51(1): 125–161.
Gauthier, A.H. and Hatzius, J. (1997). Family benefits and fertility: An econometric analysis. Population Studies 51(3): 295–306.
González, L. (2013). The effect of a universal child benefit on conceptions, abortions, and early maternal labor supply. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 5(3): 160–188.
González, L. and Trommlerová, S.K. (2023). Cash transfers and fertility: How the introduction and cancellation of a child benefit affected births and abortions. Journal of Human Resources 58(3): 783–818.
Gortfelder, M. and Puur, A. (2020). Survival and sex composition of offspring: Individual-level responses in the quantum and tempo of childbearing during the demographic transition. Population Studies 74(2): 161–177.
Guest, R. and Parr, N. (2010). The effects of family benefits on childbearing decisions: A household optimising approach applied to Australia. Economic Record 86(275): 609–619.
Hart, R.K., Bergsvik, J., Fauske, A., and Kim, W. (2024). Causal analysis of policy effects on fertility. In: Zimmermann, K.F. (ed.). Handbook of labor, human resources and population economics. Cham: Springer: 1–25.
Hart, R.K. and Galloway, T.A. (2023). Universal transfers, tax breaks and fertility: Evidence from a regional reform in Norway. Population Research and Policy Review 42(49).
Kalwij, A. (2010). The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in Western Europe. Demography 47(2): 503–519.
Kim, W. (2023). Baby bonus, fertility and missing women. Dallas, TX: Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics, Departmental Working Papers 2308 (2308).
Lain, S.J., Ford, J.B., Raynes‐Greenow, C.H., Hadfield, R.M., Simpson, J.M., Morris, J.M., and Roberts, C.L. (2009). The impact of the baby bonus payment in New South Wales: Who is having “one for the country”? Medical Journal of Australia 190(5): 238–241.
Laroque, G. and Salanié, B. (2014). Identifying the response of fertility to financial incentives. Journal of Applied Econometrics 29(2): 314–332.
Luci-Greulich, A. and Thévenon, O. (2013). The impact of family policies on fertility trends in developed countries. European Journal of Population 29: 387–416.
Lyssiotou, P. (2021). Can targeted child benefits affect fertility? Evidence from a natural experiment. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy 21(3): 921–965.
Malak, N., Rahman, M.M., and Yip, T.A. (2019). Baby bonus, anyone? Examining heterogeneous responses to a pro-natalist policy. Journal of Population Economics 32: 1205–1246.
McNown, R. and Ridao-Cano, C. (2004). The effect of child benefit policies on fertility and female labor force participation in Canada. Review of Economics of the Household 2(3): 237–254.
Milligan, K. (2005). Subsidizing the stork: New evidence on tax incentives and fertility. Review of Economics and Statistics 87(3): 539–555.
OECD (2025). Family benefits public spending [OECD Data Explorer].
OECD (2019). PF1.3: Public spending on family benefits [OECD Family Database].
Parent, D. and Wang, L. (2007). Tax incentives and fertility in Canada: Quantum vs tempo effects. Canadian Journal of Economics 40(2): 371–400.
Parliament of Estonia (2015). Explanatory memorandum to the Draft Act amending the State Family Benefits Act and related acts (Bill No. 38 SE). Tallinn: Riigikogu Draft Acts Information System.
Perehüvitiste seadus [Family Benefits Act] (2016). Riigi Teataja I, 24.12.2016, 5. Tallinn: Riigikogu.
Puur, A., Abdullayev, S., Klesment, M., and Gortfelder, M. (2023). Parental leave and fertility: Individual-level responses in the tempo and quantum of second and third births. European Journal of Population 39(1): 1–28.
Redivo, E., Dribe, M., and Scalone, F. (2024). Social-class differences in spacing and stopping during the historical fertility transition: Insights from cure models. Demographic Research 51(40): 1257–1298.
Riphahn, R.T. and Wiynck, F. (2017). Fertility effects of child benefits. Journal of Population Economics 30(4): 1135–1184.
Risse, L. (2010). .. And one for the country’: The effect of the baby bonus on Australian women’s childbearing intentions. Journal of Population Research 27(3): 213–240.
Sakkeus, L., McKibben, J., Puur, A., Rahnu, L., and Abuladze, L. (2017). Estonian population projection according to different migration scenarios. In: Tammaru, T., Kallas, K., and Eamets, R. (eds.). Estonian human development report 2016/2017. Estonia in the age of migration. Tallinn: Eesti Koostöö Kogu: 57–65.
Schellekens, J. (2009). Family allowances and fertility: Socioeconomic differences. Demography 46(3): 451–468.
Sinclair, S., Boymal, J., and De Silva, A. (2012). A re‐appraisal of the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus. Economic Record 88(1): 78–87.
Sinisaar, H. (2021). Impact of family benefits on persistent child poverty in Estonia. Population Review 60(1): 97–118.
Sobotka, T., Matysiak, A., and Brzozowska, Z. (2019). Policy responses to low fertility: How effective are they? Istanbul: United Nations Population Fund, Eastern Europe and Central Asia Regional Office.
Statistics Estonia (2025). Elussündinud sünnijärjekorra järgi (live births by birth order) (RV124).
Statistics Estonia (2025). Keskmine brutokuupalk, mediaan, detsiilid ja töötajate arv tegevusalarühma järgi (average earnings and wage statistics (PA101).
Statistics Estonia (2026). Sisemajanduse koguprodukt (nominal GDP) (RAA0012).
Statistics Estonia (2026). Sotsiaalkindlustustoetused (benefit payments) (SK17).
Statistics Estonia (2026). Tarbijahinnaindeksi kalkulaator.
Thévenon, O. and Gauthier, A.H. (2011). Family policies in developed countries: A ‘fertility-booster’ with side-effects. Community, Work and Family 14(2): 197–216.
Trumm, E., Lees, K., Varblane, U., Sammul, M., Aksen, M., Remmik, M., Urmann, H., Puur, S.M., Tubelt, E., Limmer, K., Raja, E., and Moring, M. (2020). Lapse vajaduspõhine miinimumelatis: Lõpparuanne. Tartu: Tartu Ülikool, Sotsiaalteaduslike Rakendusuuringute Keskus (RAKE) ja PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisors; Justiitsministeerium.
United Nations (2021). World population policies 2021: Policies related to fertility. New York: United Nations.
United Nations (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. New York: United Nations.
Validova, A. (2021). Pronatalist policies and fertility in Russia: Estimating tempo and quantum effects. Comparative Population Studies 46: 425–452.
Willis, R.J. (1973). A new approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior. Journal of Political Economy 81(2, Part 2): 14–64.