Volume 6 - Article 1 | Pages 1–18  

The Survivor Ratio Method for Estimating Numbers at High Ages

By A. Roger Thatcher, Väinö Kannisto, Kirill F. Andreev


Only a few countries have official population statistics which are sufficiently accurate to produce reliable estimates of death rates at high ages. For other countries, there are several methods which can be used to produce improved estimates. The choice is important for research on old age mortality. In 1999 the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research undertook a research project to compare the performance of the three leading methods, using data for nine countries over 35 years. This paper describes the research and the results, which were unexpectedly simple. It also gives an authoritative account of the most successful method.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Old age mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
Volume 29 - Article 38

The compression of deaths above the mode
Volume 22 - Article 17

A Method for Estimating Size of Population Aged 90 and over with Application to the U.S. Census 2000 Data
Volume 11 - Article 9

Sex differentials in survival in the Canadian population, 1921-1997
Volume 3 - Article 12

Measuring the compression of mortality
Volume 3 - Article 6

Finnish Life Tables since 1751
Volume 1 - Article 1

Similar articles in Demographic Research

Using Twitter data for demographic research
Volume 37 - Article 46    | Keywords: calibration, population estimates, social media, Twitter

Estimates of mortality and population changes in England and Wales over the two World Wars
Volume 13 - Article 16    | Keywords: England, population estimates, Wales, World War I, World War II

Official population statistics and the Human Mortality Database estimates of populations aged 80+ in Germany and nine other European countries
Volume 13 - Article 14    | Keywords: aging, elderly, population estimates, statistics

Estimating multistate transition rates from population distributions
Volume 9 - Article 1    | Keywords: entropy, estimation techniques, iterative proportional fitting, multistate models