Volume 12 - Article 9 | Pages 197–236

World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory

By Philippe Bocquier

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter


Date received:01 Oct 2004
Date published:04 May 2005
Word count:8623
Keywords:developed countries, developing countries, environment, model, poverty, projections, urban transition, urbanization
Additional files:Projections (Excel file, 422 kB)


This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.

Author's Affiliation

Philippe Bocquier - Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» Human capital on the move: Education as a determinant of internal migration in selected INDEPTH surveillance populations in Africa
Volume 34 - Article 30

» Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden
Volume 33 - Article 48

» Circular migration patterns and determinants in Nairobi slum settlements
Volume 23 - Article 20

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Historical reproductive patterns in developed countries: Aggregate-level perspective
Volume 38 - Article 2    | Keywords: developed countries

» Economic crisis promotes fertility decline in poor areas: Evidence from Colombia
Volume 37 - Article 27    | Keywords: poverty

» Functional limitation trajectories and their determinants among women in the Philippines
Volume 36 - Article 30    | Keywords: developing countries

» Distal determinants of fertility decline: Evidence from 640 Indian districts
Volume 34 - Article 13    | Keywords: poverty

» Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden
Volume 33 - Article 48    | Keywords: urban transition


»Volume 12




Similar Articles



Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID