Volume 12 - Article 9 | Pages 197–236
World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory
| Date received: | 01 Oct 2004 |
| Date published: | 04 May 2005 |
| Word count: | 8623 |
| Keywords: | developed countries, developing countries, environment, model, poverty, projections, urban transition, urbanization |
| DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.9 |
| Additional files: | Projections (Excel file, 422 kB) |
Abstract
This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.
Author's Affiliation
Philippe Bocquier - Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium
Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research
»
A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France
Volume 38 - Article 50
»
Human capital on the move: Education as a determinant of internal migration in selected INDEPTH surveillance populations in Africa
Volume 34 - Article 30
»
Which transition comes first? Urban and demographic transitions in Belgium and Sweden
Volume 33 - Article 48
»
Circular migration patterns and determinants in Nairobi slum settlements
Volume 23 - Article 20
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
»
The long-run effects of poverty alleviation resettlement on child development: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in China
Volume 43 - Article 10 | Keywords: poverty
»
Evaluating links between dynamic urban landscapes and under-five child mortality in Accra, Ghana
Volume 42 - Article 20 | Keywords: urbanization
»
Assessing the quality of education reporting in Brazilian censuses
Volume 42 - Article 15 | Keywords: developing countries
»
Intimate partner violence and contraceptive use in developing countries: How does the relationship depend on context?
Volume 42 - Article 10 | Keywords: developing countries
»
The limits to cumulative causation revisited: Urban-origin Mexico‒US migration in an era of increased immigration restrictions
Volume 41 - Article 28 | Keywords: developing countries
Articles
Citations
Download to Citation Manager
Similar Articles
PubMed
»Articles by Philippe Bocquier
Google Scholar
»Articles by Philippe Bocquier