Volume 14 - Article 6 | Pages 85–110
Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective
Date received: | 17 Mar 2005 |
Date published: | 14 Feb 2006 |
Word count: | 8737 |
Keywords: | age at death, age of childbearing, alternative measures of tempo, childbearing, death, fertility, fertility adjustments, measurements, mortality, period-shift model, tempo adjustment, tempo effects |
DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.6 |
Abstract
In this paper I review the concept of tempo effects in demography, focusing on the tempo adjustments proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney and drawing on the work of Ryder and Zeng and Land.
I show that the period-shift model that underlies the proposed adjustments can be motivated from an accelerated failure time cohort perspective. I propose alternative measures of tempo under changing fertility and mortality that share a synthetic cohort interpretation with the adjusted measure of quantum. I stress similarities between the results for fertility and mortality, particularly in terms of mean age of childbearing and mean age at death, but also note some important distinctions.
I conclude that the fertility adjustments can help distinguish quantum and tempo effects, but argue that in the case of mortality the Bongaarts-Feeney measure of tempo-adjusted life expectancy differs from conventional estimates because it reflects past mortality.
Author's Affiliation
Germán Rodriguez - Princeton University, United States of America
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