Volume 14 - Article 6 | Pages 85–110  

Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective

By Germán Rodriguez

Abstract

In this paper I review the concept of tempo effects in demography, focusing on the tempo adjustments proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney and drawing on the work of Ryder and Zeng and Land.
I show that the period-shift model that underlies the proposed adjustments can be motivated from an accelerated failure time cohort perspective. I propose alternative measures of tempo under changing fertility and mortality that share a synthetic cohort interpretation with the adjusted measure of quantum. I stress similarities between the results for fertility and mortality, particularly in terms of mean age of childbearing and mean age at death, but also note some important distinctions.
I conclude that the fertility adjustments can help distinguish quantum and tempo effects, but argue that in the case of mortality the Bongaarts-Feeney measure of tempo-adjusted life expectancy differs from conventional estimates because it reflects past mortality.

Author’s Affiliation

• Germán Rodriguez - Princeton University, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Extracting and reshaping World Fertility Survey data in Stata
Volume 36 - Article 31

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Fertility differences across immigrant generations in the United Kingdom
Volume 52 - Article 33    | Keywords: event history analysis, fertility, immigrant, second generation, United Kingdom

Amish fertility in the United States: Comparative evidence from the American Community Survey and Amish population registries
Volume 52 - Article 26    | Keywords: American Community Survey (ACS), Amish, fertility, natural fertility, total fertility rate (TFR)

Examining the relationships between education, coresidential unions, and the fertility gap by simulating the reproductive life courses of Dutch women
Volume 52 - Article 24    | Keywords: contraception, education, fertility, GGS, life course, LISS, microsimulation, Netherlands, physiology, unions

Can we estimate crisis death tolls by subtracting total population estimates? A critical review and appraisal
Volume 52 - Article 23    | Keywords: conflict demography, death tolls, demographic methods, historical demography, mortality, mortality crises, mortality estimates, population balance

The use of mobile phone surveys for rapid mortality monitoring: A national study in Burkina Faso
Volume 52 - Article 16    | Keywords: age-specific mortality patterns, data quality, Demographic Health Surveys, direct estimation, health and security crises, low-and-middle-income countries, mobile phones, mortality, sample selection, surveys, under-five mortality