Volume 14 - Article 6 | Pages 85–110  

Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective

By Germán Rodriguez

Abstract

In this paper I review the concept of tempo effects in demography, focusing on the tempo adjustments proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney and drawing on the work of Ryder and Zeng and Land.
I show that the period-shift model that underlies the proposed adjustments can be motivated from an accelerated failure time cohort perspective. I propose alternative measures of tempo under changing fertility and mortality that share a synthetic cohort interpretation with the adjusted measure of quantum. I stress similarities between the results for fertility and mortality, particularly in terms of mean age of childbearing and mean age at death, but also note some important distinctions.
I conclude that the fertility adjustments can help distinguish quantum and tempo effects, but argue that in the case of mortality the Bongaarts-Feeney measure of tempo-adjusted life expectancy differs from conventional estimates because it reflects past mortality.

Author’s Affiliation

• Germán Rodriguez - Princeton University, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Extracting and reshaping World Fertility Survey data in Stata
Volume 36 - Article 31

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Early unintended childbearing and unsecured debt in the United States
Volume 53 - Article 27    | Keywords: demography, fertility, gender, life course, mothers

Neighbors’ social attitudes predict variations in live births among the Amish of Holmes County, Ohio, United States
Volume 53 - Article 25    | Keywords: Amish, diffusion, fertility, household, proximity, religion, spatial analysis

Feminicide as a determinant of Mexican female life expectancy in the 21st century
Volume 53 - Article 24    | Keywords: female life expectancy, feminicide, life expectancy, Mexico, mortality, violence, women

Online obituaries as a complementary source of data for mortality in Canada
Volume 53 - Article 22    | Keywords: Canada, computational demography, digital traces, mortality, nowcasting, online obituaries, Quebec, web scraping

Analysing migrant fertility using machine learning techniques: An application of random survival forest to longitudinal data from France
Volume 53 - Article 21    | Keywords: fertility, immigrants, machine learning, random survival forest, survival analysis