Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality

Tom A Moultrie; Rob Dorrington

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.46

Volume 19 - Article 46 | Pages 1635–1662

Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality

By Tom A Moultrie, Rob Dorrington

Date received:

2 Apr 2008

Date published:

16 Sep 2008

Word count:

6228

Keywords:

developing countries, estimation, fertility, HIV/AIDS, indirect techniques

DOI:

10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.46

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Abstract

Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intention of this paper is to interrogate what happens to the results produced by the P/F ratio method as each of these three assumptions is violated, first independently, and then concurrently. These investigations are important given the generally poor quality of census data collected in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and the radically altering demographic conditions associated with a generalised HIV/AIDS epidemic in the region.

Author’s Affiliation

Tom A Moultrie - University of Cape Town, South Africa EMAIL
Rob Dorrington - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa EMAIL

Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality

Abstract

Author’s Affiliation

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