Volume 21 - Article 11 | Pages 289–340  

Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model

By Leigh Johnson, Rob Dorrington, Debbie Bradshaw, Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk, Thomas Rehle

Abstract

This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

Author’s Affiliation

• Leigh Johnson - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa EMAIL
• Rob Dorrington - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa EMAIL
• Debbie Bradshaw - South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), South Africa EMAIL
• Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk - Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), South Africa EMAIL
• Thomas Rehle - Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), South Africa EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality
Volume 19 - Article 46

Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions
Volume 14 - Article 22

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