Volume 22 - Article 10 | Pages 211–236  

Modeling fertility curves in Africa

By Ezra Gayawan, Samson B. Adebayo, Reuben A. Ipinyomi, Benjamin Oyejola

Abstract

The modeling of fertility patterns is an essential method researchers use to understand world-wide population patterns. Various types of fertility models have been reported in the literature to capture the patterns specific to developed countries. While much effort has been put into reducing fertility rates in Africa, models which describe the fertility patterns have not been adequately described. This article presents a flexible parametric model that can adequately capture the varying patterns of the age-specific fertility curves of African countries. The model has parameters that are interpretable in terms of demographic indices. The performance of this model was compared with other commonly used models and Akaike’s Information Criterion was used for selecting the model with best fit. The presented model was able to reproduce the empirical fertility data of 11 out of 15 countries better than the other models considered.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

A Bayesian semiparametric multilevel survival modelling of age at first birth in Nigeria
Volume 28 - Article 45

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

The Own-Children Method of fertility estimation: The devil is in the detail
Volume 45 - Article 25    | Keywords: age-specific fertility rate (ASFR), census data, demographic methods, indirect estimation, reverse survival method

Evaluating links between dynamic urban landscapes and under-five child mortality in Accra, Ghana
Volume 42 - Article 20    | Keywords: Africa, neighborhood effects, spatial variability, under-five mortality, urbanization

Migration influenced by environmental change in Africa: A systematic review of empirical evidence
Volume 41 - Article 18    | Keywords: Africa, climate change, drivers of migration, environmental change, migration, systematic review

Higher acceptance rates of asylum seekers lead to slightly more asylum applications in the future
Volume 39 - Article 47    | Keywords: Africa, asylum seekers, Europe, migration, refugees

Polygynous marriage and child health in sub-Saharan Africa: What is the evidence for harm?
Volume 39 - Article 6    | Keywords: Africa, child health, family structure, international development, polygyny, sub-Saharan Africa