Volume 22 - Article 22 | Pages 663–690  

Demographers’ interest in fertility trends and determinants in developed countries: Is it warranted?

By Øystein Kravdal

Abstract

Studies of fertility trends and determinants in developed countries are high on demographers’ research agenda. The interest in this subject is probably, to a large extent, motivated by a notion about low fertility being problematic, but demographers have not been much engaged in efforts to find out whether that is actually the case, at least as judged from the contents of the major demography journals. In this paper, the possibility of various individual- and societal-level effects of low fertility is briefly reviewed. Some of the harmful effects may be foreseen and considered an acceptable disadvantage by couples making fertility decisions, while others more rightly can be considered social problems. It is argued that knowledge about fertility trends and determinants may help us learn more about the consequences of low fertility and see clearer whether interventions may be justified and what specific steps one might take. Further efforts to expand this knowledge should therefore be welcome, and it is possible that demographers can make an important contribution by applying this knowledge themselves in studies of consequences of fertility. A higher priority to forecasting might also be worthwhile.

Author’s Affiliation

• Øystein Kravdal - Universitetet i Oslo, Norway EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

The influence of parental cancer on the mental health of children and young adults: Evidence from Norwegian register data on healthcare consultations
Volume 50 - Article 27

Are sibling models a suitable tool in analyses of how reproductive factors affect child mortality?
Volume 42 - Article 28

Taking birth year into account when analysing effects of maternal age on child health and other outcomes: The value of a multilevel-multiprocess model compared to a sibling model
Volume 40 - Article 43

The increasing mortality advantage of the married: The role played by education
Volume 38 - Article 20

What has high fertility got to do with the low birth weight problem in Africa?
Volume 28 - Article 25

Further evidence of community education effects on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 27 - Article 22

Children's stunting in sub-Saharan Africa: Is there an externality effect of high fertility?
Volume 25 - Article 18

Does income inequality really influence individual mortality?: Results from a ‘fixed-effects analysis’ where constant unobserved municipality characteristics are controlled
Volume 18 - Article 7

Effects of current education on second- and third-birth rates among Norwegian women and men born in 1964: Substantive interpretations and methodological issues
Volume 17 - Article 9

Does cancer affect the divorce rate?
Volume 16 - Article 15

A simulation-based assessment of the bias produced when using averages from small DHS clusters as contextual variables in multilevel models
Volume 15 - Article 1

Educational differentials in male mortality in Russia and northern Europe: A comparison of an epidemiological cohort from Moscow and St. Petersburg with the male populations of Helsinki and Oslo
Volume 10 - Article 1

The problematic estimation of "imitation effects" in multilevel models
Volume 9 - Article 2

The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway
Volume 6 - Article 10

Is the Previously Reported Increase in Second- and Higher-order Birth Rates in Norway and Sweden from the mid-1970s Real or a Result of Inadequate Estimation Methods?
Volume 6 - Article 9

The High Fertility of College Educated Women in Norway: An Artefact of the Separate Modelling of Each Parity Transition
Volume 5 - Article 6

A search for aggregate-level effects of education on fertility, using data from Zimbabwe
Volume 3 - Article 3

An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses
Special Collection 3 - Article 6

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Cash transfers and fertility: Evidence from Poland’s Family 500+ Policy
Volume 51 - Article 28    | Keywords: cash transfer, family demography, low fertility, Poland, public policy

Lowest low fertility in Spain: Insights from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey
Volume 51 - Article 19    | Keywords: fertility desires, low fertility, Spain

Impact of family policies and economic situation on low fertility in Tehran, Iran: A multi-agent-based modeling
Volume 51 - Article 5    | Keywords: economic conditions, family policy, Iran, low fertility, multi-agent-based modeling

Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India’s alternative fertility transition
Volume 48 - Article 34    | Keywords: age at birth, fertility transition, India, low fertility, sterilisation

Heterogeneity among the never married in a low-fertility context
Volume 47 - Article 24    | Keywords: latent class analysis, low fertility, marriage, Singapore, singlehood