Volume 22 - Article 30 | Pages 965–984  

Examining the predictive value of fertility preferences among Ghanaian women

By Ivy Kodzi, David Johnson, John C. Casterline

Abstract

Despite extensive research, doubts remain regarding the degree of correspondence between prior stated fertility preferences and subsequent fertility behavior. Preference instability is a factor that potentially undermines predictiveness. Furthermore, if other predictors of fertility substantially explain fertility, then knowledge of preferences may contribute little to explaining or predicting individual fertility behavior. In this study, we examined these aspects of the study of individual fertility preference-behavior consistency. Using a prospective multi-wave panel dataset, we modeled the monthly likelihood of conception, taking into account the dynamic nature of preferences, and controlling for changing reproductive life cycle factors and stable socioeconomic background predictors of fertility. We demonstrate from a sample of fecund married Ghanaian women that fertility preferences retain independent predictive power in the model predicting the likelihood of conception.

Author’s Affiliation

• Ivy Kodzi - Ohio State University, United States of America EMAIL
• David Johnson - Pennsylvania State University, United States of America EMAIL
• John C. Casterline - Ohio State University, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Extramarital fertility in low- and middle-income countries
Volume 47 - Article 3

Unrealized fertility: Fertility desires at the end of the reproductive career
Volume 36 - Article 14

Migration and marriage: Modeling the joint process
Volume 30 - Article 47

What has high fertility got to do with the low birth weight problem in Africa?
Volume 28 - Article 25

Children's stunting in sub-Saharan Africa: Is there an externality effect of high fertility?
Volume 25 - Article 18

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Early unintended childbearing and unsecured debt in the United States
Volume 53 - Article 27    | Keywords: demography, fertility, gender, life course, mothers

Neighbors’ social attitudes predict variations in live births among the Amish of Holmes County, Ohio, United States
Volume 53 - Article 25    | Keywords: Amish, diffusion, fertility, household, proximity, religion, spatial analysis

Analysing migrant fertility using machine learning techniques: An application of random survival forest to longitudinal data from France
Volume 53 - Article 21    | Keywords: fertility, immigrants, machine learning, random survival forest, survival analysis

The partnership, fertility, and employment trajectories of immigrants in the United Kingdom: An intersectional life course approach using three-channel sequence analysis
Volume 53 - Article 10    | Keywords: employment, fertility, immigrants, multi-channel sequence analysis, partnership, United Kingdom

Where do we go from here? Partnership-parenthood trajectories of cohabitation as first union during young adulthood in the United States
Volume 53 - Article 9    | Keywords: cohabitation, family inequality, fertility, marriage, race/ethnicity, transition to adulthood, union formation, United States of America