Volume 23 - Article 8 | Pages 191–222

Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks

By Tom Wilson

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter

 

 
Date received:10 Nov 2009
Date published:27 Jul 2010
Word count:4594
Keywords:Australia, Microsoft Excel, model migration schedule, population projection, student migration
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2010.23.8
Updated Items:On January 28, 2013 four typing mistakes were corrected on page 199, page 202, and on page 203.
 

Abstract

This paper proposes an extension of the standard parameterised model migration schedule to account for highly age-concentrated student migration. Many age profiles of regional migration are characterised by sudden ‘spiked’ increases in migration intensities in the late teenage years, which are related to leaving school, and, in particular, to entry into higher education. The standard model schedule does not appear to be effective in describing the pattern at these ages. This paper therefore proposes an extension of the standard model through the addition of a student curve. The paper also describes a relatively simple Microsoft Excel-based fitting procedure. By way of illustration, both student peak and standard model schedules are fitted to the age patterns of internal migration for two Australian regions that experience substantial student migration. The student peak schedule is shown to provide an improved model of these migration age profiles. Illustrative population projections are presented to demonstrate the differences that result when model migration schedules with and without student peaks are used.

Author's Affiliation

Tom Wilson - University of Melbourne, Australia [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» Preparing local area population forecasts using a bi-regional cohort-component model without the need for local migration data
Volume 46 - Article 32

» Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia
Volume 45 - Article 12

» The geographical patterns of birth seasonality in Australia
Volume 43 - Article 40

» Subnational population forecasts: Do users want to know about uncertainty?
Volume 41 - Article 13

» Visualising the demographic factors which shape population age structure
Volume 35 - Article 29

» The sequential propensity household projection model
Volume 28 - Article 24

» Australia's uncertain demographic future
Volume 11 - Article 8

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» A method for socially evaluating the effects of long-run demographic paths on living standards
Volume 31 - Article 11    | Keywords: Australia, population projection

» Internal migration and the de-standardization of the life course: A sequence analysis of reasons for migrating
Volume 46 - Article 12    | Keywords: Australia

» An age–period–cohort approach to disentangling generational differences in family values and religious beliefs: Understanding the modern Australian family today
Volume 45 - Article 20    | Keywords: Australia

» The formal demography of kinship III: Kinship dynamics with time-varying demographic rates
Volume 45 - Article 16    | Keywords: population projection

» Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia
Volume 45 - Article 12    | Keywords: Australia

Articles

»Volume 23

 

Citations

 

 

Similar Articles

 

 

Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID