Volume 26 - Article 13 | Pages 293–318  

Is fertility stalling in Jordan?

By Valeria Cetorelli, Tiziana Leone

Abstract

Background: Most of the recent literature on fertility stalls has concentrated on sub-Saharan Africa and has highlighted flaws in DHS data. No similar detailed research exists for presumed stalls occurring in countries outside that region. This is particularly surprising when considering that cases of fertility stalls have also been suggested in Middle Eastern countries, including in Egypt, Syria and among the Palestinians in Israel and the occupied Territory.

Objective: The present paper is the first to study an apparent fertility stall in Jordan, using five DHS surveys, and to carry out a rigorous three-stage analysis to assess its genuiness.

Methods: First, the quality of data concerning age and birth dates of women and their children is evaluated to control for possible misreporting. Second, retrospective fertility rates are calculated from each survey and a reliable fertility trend covering over 30 years is reconstructed from pooled data of all surveys. Finally, a linear regression model is fitted to assess whether the rate of fertility decline in the stalling period differs significantly from the rate of decline in the preceding period and is not statistically different from zero.

Results: The analysis demonstrates that not only is the stall real and not due to data errors, but it is also one of the longest lasting recently assessed. Since more than a decade, fertility in Jordan has remained relatively constant at a rate exceeding 3.5 children per woman.

Conclusions: This has important policy implications. It suggests the need for greater attention to possible cases of similar stalls in neighbouring countries and in-depth investigations of their determinants.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Contemporary female migration in Ghana: Analyses of the 2000 and 2010 Censuses
Volume 39 - Article 44

Fertility and union dissolution in Brazil: an example of multi-process modelling using the Demographic and Health Survey calendar data
Volume 17 - Article 7

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India’s alternative fertility transition
Volume 48 - Article 34    | Keywords: age at birth, fertility transition, India, low fertility, sterilisation

Slow-downs of fertility decline: When should we call it a 'fertility stall'?
Volume 46 - Article 26    | Keywords: child mortality, demographic transition, development, female education, fertility stall, population, population policies, sub-Saharan Africa

Educational pairings and fertility decline in Brazil: An analysis using cohort fertility
Volume 46 - Article 6    | Keywords: Brazil, cohort fertility, educational pairings, fertility transition

An investigation of Jordan’s fertility stall and resumed decline: The role of proximate determinants
Volume 45 - Article 19    | Keywords: contraceptive use, fertility, fertility stall, Jordan, marriage

Explaining the MENA paradox: Rising educational attainment yet stagnant female labor force participation
Volume 43 - Article 28    | Keywords: employment, female labor force participation, human capital, labor market, Middle East, North Africa