Volume 28 - Article 39 | Pages 1145–1166 Article has associated letter

Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility

By Stuart Gietel-Basten, Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov


Response Letters

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28 March 2014 | Response Letter

What makes a demographic scenario ‘unrealistic’? Response to Le Bourg

by Stuart Gietel-Basten

Le Bourg makes critical references to the work of many other scholars in his letter, but in this response we focus on the two core bones of contention with ours, namely a possible life expectancy of 120 and a possible African population of 12 billion. [...]

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20 March 2014 | Response Letter

Unrealistic demographic scenarios should not be published

by Éric Le Bourg

1. Introduction

Demographers often wonder “what would happen if …”. For instance, they try to forecast the world population under various scenarios, as done by Basten et al. (2013) in a recent article in Demographic Research. Such forecasts are useful, provided they rely on [...]

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