Volume 28 - Article 46 | Pages 1373–1388

Thinking about post-transitional demographic regimes: A reflection

By Chris Wilson

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter


Date received:10 Mar 2013
Date published:27 Jun 2013
Word count:4655
Keywords:demographic regimes, demographic transition, posttransitional demography


Background: For the last 70 years the concept of the demographic transition has provided a basis for understanding and predicting population trends in the developing world. However, a majority of the developing world’s population will soon be post-transitional - what will happen then? This paper attempts to outline where answers to this question might be found. It suggests that a valuable way to organise the study of these issues is the concept of the demographic regime.

Objective: The aim of the paper is to encourage discussion on the nature of post-transitional demographic regimes around the world, especially in the developing world. The style of the reflection is that of a speculative essay - a Denkstűck or ballon d’essai.

Methods: In addition to a discussion of the concept of a demographic regime, the paper looks at three possible sources of information on the determinants of post-transitional regimes in the developing world: 1) the nature of the transition itself, 2) lessons drawn from pre-transitional regimes, and 3) demographic trends in Europe and other developed countries, some which have been post-transitional for several decades.

Conclusions: The paper concludes with a set of suggestions for future research on the topic.

Author's Affiliation

Chris Wilson - University of Oxford, United Kingdom [Email]

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Post-transitional regional fertility in Romania
Volume 38 - Article 57    | Keywords: demographic transition

» A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France
Volume 38 - Article 50    | Keywords: demographic transition

» Historical reproductive patterns in developed countries: Aggregate-level perspective
Volume 38 - Article 2    | Keywords: demographic transition

» The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies
Volume 36 - Article 42    | Keywords: demographic transition

» The decline of infant and child mortality among Spanish Gitanos or Calé (1871−2005): A microdemographic study in Andalusia
Volume 36 - Article 33    | Keywords: demographic transition


»Volume 28





Similar Articles



Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID