Volume 29 - Article 27 | Pages 729–766
Reforging the Wedding Ring: Exploring a Semi-Artificial Model of Population for the United Kingdom with Gaussian process emulators
|Date received:||02 Aug 2012|
|Date published:||09 Oct 2013|
|Keywords:||agent-based computational demography, Gaussian process emulator, multistate models, population dynamics, sensitivity analysis|
|Additional files:||readme.29-27 (text file, 3 kB)|
|demographic-research.29-27 (zip file, 300 kB)|
Background: We extend the "Wedding Ring‟ agent-based model of marriage formation to include some empirical information on the natural population change for the United Kingdom together with behavioural explanations that drive the observed nuptiality trends.
Objective: We propose a method to explore statistical properties of agent-based demographic models. By coupling rule-based explanations driving the agent-based model with observed data we wish to bring agent-based modelling and demographic analysis closer together.
Methods: We present a Semi-Artificial Model of Population, which aims to bridge demographic micro-simulation and agent-based traditions. We then utilise a Gaussian process emulator - a statistical model of the base model - to analyse the impact of selected model parameters on two key model outputs: population size and share of married agents. A sensitivity analysis is attempted, aiming to assess the relative importance of different inputs.
Results: The resulting multi-state model of population dynamics has enhanced predictive capacity as compared to the original specification of the Wedding Ring, but there are some trade-offs between the outputs considered. The sensitivity analysis allows identification of the most important parameters in the modelled marriage formation process.
Conclusions: The proposed methods allow for generating coherent, multi-level agent-based scenarios aligned with some aspects of empirical demographic reality. Emulators permit a statistical analysis of their properties and help select plausible parameter values.
Comments: Given non-linearities in agent-based models such as the Wedding Ring, and the presence of feedback loops, the uncertainty in the model may not be directly computable by using traditional statistical methods. The use of statistical emulators offers a way forward.
Jakub Bijak - University of Southampton, United Kingdom
Jason D. Hilton - University of Southampton, United Kingdom
Eric Silverman - University of Southampton, United Kingdom
Viet Dung Cao - University of Southampton, United Kingdom
Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research
Editorial: The past, present, and future of Demographic Research
Volume 41 - Article 41
Editorial: P-values, theory, replicability, and rigour
Volume 41 - Article 32
Quantifying paradigm change in demography
Volume 30 - Article 32
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Volume 29 - Article 43
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
Age, period, and cohort effects contributing to the Great American Migration Slowdown
Volume 45 - Article 42 | Keywords: population dynamics
Estimating annual rates of homelessness
Volume 43 - Article 1 | Keywords: population dynamics
The formal demography of kinship II: Multistate models, parity, and sibship
Volume 42 - Article 38 | Keywords: multistate models
The role of education in the intersection of partnership transitions and motherhood in Europe and the United States
Volume 39 - Article 27 | Keywords: multistate models
Interdisciplinary Research on Healthy Aging: Introduction
Volume 38 - Article 10 | Keywords: multistate models
Cited References: 68
»View the references of this article
Download to Citation Manager