Background: Since 1990, Vital Statistics reports show a dramatic decline in the total fertility rates (TFRs) of American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) women in the United States.

Objective: We study whether the decrease in TFRs is due to a real change in fertility for a stable population; a compositional change in who identifies as AI/AN; or a methodological issue stemming from differences in identifying race across the data systems used to calculate fertility rates.

Methods: We use data from the decennial US Census to study change in AI/AN fertility from 1980–2010.

Results: We find declining TFRs when fertility is calculated within a single data system. Additionally, although TFRs are relatively stable within the subgroups of married and unmarried AI/AN women, the proportion of AI/AN women who are married has declined across birth cohorts.

Conclusions: The decrease in TFRs for AI/AN women is a real change in fertility patterns and is not due to differences in racial identification across data systems.

Contribution: We update knowledge of AI/AN fertility to include the decline in TFRs between 1980 and 2010.