Volume 38 - Article 54 | Pages 1635–1662

Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models

By Guy J. Abel

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter


Date received:31 Oct 2016
Date published:16 May 2018
Word count:6745
Keywords:migration, population projections


Background: Little attention is given to the role of migration in global population projection models. Most demographers set future levels of net migration on trajectories towards zero in all countries, nullifying the impact of migration on long-run projected populations. Yet as fertility and mortality rates fall, the role of migration on future population change is becoming more pronounced.

Objective: In this paper we develop future long-run migration scenarios to provide a range of possible outcomes.

Methods: Our alternative migration scenarios are linked to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), widely used in research on global environmental change. These are utilized as inputs for a global cohort component projection model to obtain population totals up until 2100 for all countries.

Contribution: The results illustrate the important role of migration assumptions in long run projections, especially in post demographic transition countries. Further, they provide plausible alternatives to projections based on the commonly used, but poorly justified, convergence to the zero net migration assumption.

Author's Affiliation

Guy J. Abel - Asian Demographic Research Institute, China [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Volume 29 - Article 43

» Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data
Volume 28 - Article 18

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Educational selectivity of internal migrants: A global assessment
Volume 39 - Article 29    | Keywords: migration

» A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France
Volume 38 - Article 50    | Keywords: migration

» Migration, legality, and fertility regulation: Abortion and contraception among migrants and natives in Russia
Volume 38 - Article 42    | Keywords: migration

» Collecting data from migrants in Ghana: Lessons learned using respondent-driven sampling
Volume 38 - Article 36    | Keywords: migration

» Family reunification – who, when, and how? Family trajectories among migrants in Italy
Volume 38 - Article 28    | Keywords: migration


»Volume 38





Similar Articles



Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID