Volume 4 - Article 8 | Pages 203–288
A Guide to Global Population Projections
| Date received: | 05 Dec 2000 |
| Date published: | 13 Jun 2001 |
| Word count: | 24372 |
| Keywords: | forecasting, population projections, projections, uncertainty |
| DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.8 |
Abstract
Interdisciplinary studies that draw on long-term, global population projections often make limited use of projection results, due at least in part to the historically opaque nature of the projection process. We present a guide to such projections aimed at researchers and educators who would benefit from putting them to greater use.
Drawing on new practices and new thinking on uncertainty, methodology, and the likely future courses of fertility and life expectancy, we discuss who makes projections and how, and the key assumptions upon which they are based. We also compare methodology and recent results from prominent institutions and provide a guide to other sources of demographic information, pointers to projection results, and an entry point to key literature in the field.
Author's Affiliation
Brian C. O'Neill - University of Denver, United States of America
Deborah Balk - City University of New York, United States of America
Melanie Brickman - Columbia University, United States of America
Markos Ezra - Brown University, United States of America
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