Volume 40 - Article 13 | Pages 319–358  

Population sex imbalance in China before the One-Child Policy

By Kimberly Singer Babiarz, Paul Ma, Shige Song, Grant Miller

Abstract

Objective: Most research on population sex imbalance in China has focused on the One-Child Policy era. However, because much of China’s fertility decline occurred during the 1970s, we investigate the possibility that sex ratios began rising during this period (as predicted by theory) before the One-Child Policy.

Results: Analyzing sex ratios between 1960 and 1987 by birth order and sibship sex composition, we find that among the subset of couples expected to have the greatest demand for sons (those at higher parities without previous sons), sex ratios at birth reached 115–121 boys per 100 girls during the 1970s – implying approximately 840,000 to 1,100,000 girls missing from Chinese birth cohorts during the 1970s. Importantly, these results do not appear to be driven by differential under-reporting of living girls, or instances of adoption. Given the absence of ultrasound technologies prior to 1979, they imply the presence of postnatal sex selection in China during the 1970s.

Contribution: Our work makes several important contributions to existing literature. First, we focus on the subset of couples among whom the demand for sons is predicted to be the strongest: higher parity couples not yet having a boy. Second, we estimate sex ratios by single year of age (from birth to age 4), distinguishing differential rates of infant death from more gradual neglect of girls as they age throughout childhood. Third, we combine graphical and multivariate statistical analyses to test for meaningfully imbalanced sex ratios. Finally, we measure potential irregularities in the reporting of living girls, including the adoption of girls, and we generate new estimates of unreported females.

Author’s Affiliation

• Kimberly Singer Babiarz - Stanford University, United States of America EMAIL
• Paul Ma - University of Minnesota Twin Cities, United States of America EMAIL
• Shige Song - City University of New York, United States of America EMAIL
• Grant Miller - Stanford University, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

The impact of sent-down movement on Chinese women's age at first marriage
Volume 34 - Article 28

Prenatal malnutrition and subsequent foetal loss risk: Evidence from the 1959-1961 Chinese famine
Volume 29 - Article 26

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Fertility differences across immigrant generations in the United Kingdom
Volume 52 - Article 33    | Keywords: event history analysis, fertility, immigrant, second generation, United Kingdom

Amish fertility in the United States: Comparative evidence from the American Community Survey and Amish population registries
Volume 52 - Article 26    | Keywords: American Community Survey (ACS), Amish, fertility, natural fertility, total fertility rate (TFR)

Examining the relationships between education, coresidential unions, and the fertility gap by simulating the reproductive life courses of Dutch women
Volume 52 - Article 24    | Keywords: contraception, education, fertility, GGS, life course, LISS, microsimulation, Netherlands, physiology, unions

Job creation, job destruction, and fertility in Germany
Volume 52 - Article 13    | Keywords: fertility, gender, Germany, job creation, job destruction, labor market, spatial modelling, unemployment

Infant mortality among US whites in the 19th century: New evidence from childhood sex ratios
Volume 52 - Article 10    | Keywords: 19th century, economic development, infant mortality, mortality transition, population health, sex ratio