Read me file This document describes: A. CLASSIC MIGRATION REPLACEMENT FILES B. PROSPECTIVE MIGRATION REPLACEMENT FILES ************************************************************************************* CLASSIC MIGRATION REPLACEMENT FILES What ARE THE CLASSIC MIGRATION REPLACEMENT FILES? 1_ClassicReptMig_TOT_POP.xlsx – Replacement Migration to keep constant the total population size 2_ClassicRepMig_ACT_POP.xlsx – Replacement Migration to keep the volume in the working age population 3_ClassicRepMig_RATIO.xlsx – Replacement Migration to maintain the potential support ratio (PSR) Overview Excels files to estimate demographic projections and replacement migration are based on: 1-EUROSTAT population by age base line (01.01.2015) 2-EUROSTAT life expectancy assumptions – Female and Male Surviving Probabilities (2015-2060) 3-EUROSTAT fertility assumptions - Fertility Rates (2015-2060) 4-ONU migrants age structure (both sex age structure adapted for single years) The excel files project population on a year-to-year basis between 01.01.2015 to 31.12.2016, for single years of age for females and males. Replacement migration inputs are defined by the differential between the population estimates without migration and the population values according with the specific demographic goals (sustain total population, sustain active population, sustain potential support ratio) For each year, the value computed in this differential (“Missing Population” line) is inserted manually on the “Replacement Migration”. The insertion of the value for each year forces the recalculation all the values for the subsequent years, namely subsequent “Missing Population” and consequently “Replacement Migration” requirements. In each excel file 5 sheets - one for each country. In each sheet: Population age groups (calculated) Line 2 - TOTAL POPULATION Line 3 - YOUNG POPULATION (0-20) Line 4 - ACTIVE POPULATION (20-64) Line 5 - OLD AGE POPULATION(65+) Line 6 - Potential Support Ratio (PSR) Area: D2:D6 – AW2:AW6 Missing population to attain the scenario goal (calculated) Line 8 - MISSING POPULATION Area: D8– AW8 Replacement migration (manually inserted year-by-year) Line 10 - REPLACEMENT MIGRATION Area: D10 – AW10 Estimated births (calculated) Line 17 – Total births Line 18 – Female births Line 19 – Male births D17:D19– AW17:AW22 Age structure for migrants (inserted) MIGRANTS AGE STRUCTURE Females – Column A – A22:A122 Males - Column A – area:A129:A229 Age - Column B Baseline population by age (inserted) Females – Column C – area: C22:C22 Males – Column C – area: C129:C129 Projected population by age (single years) Females – area: D22:D22 Males – area: D129:D129 Assumption mortality by age (survival probabilities) Females: AZ22: AZ122 – CS22:CS122 Males: AZ128: AZ229 – CS1128:CS2291 Assumptions fertility (fertility rates) Area: CV39:CV73 – EO39:EO73 Estimated births Area: CV77:CV111 – EO77:EO111 How to use it? 1. Input the baseline population values by age and sex in 01.01.2015 2. Input mortality and fertility assumptions by age between 2015-2060 3. Input assumptions on migrants active population/inactive population 4. Digit the value presented MISSING POPULATION (D8) in REPLACEMENT MIGRATION (D10) for 2015. Repeat the process sequentially to the flowing years. The excel will compute the differential based on population groups, adjust for mortality and fertility implications of the migration input, and update the population sums by age group. *************************************************************************************************** PROSPECTIVE MIGRATION REPLACEMENT FILES What ARE THE PROSPECTIVE MIGRATION REPLACEMENT FILES? . 4_ProspectiveRepMigra_UK.xlsx . 5_ProspectiveRepMigra_Germany.xlsx . 6_ProspectiveRepMigra_France.xlsx . 7_ProspectiveRepMigra_Italy.xlsx . 8_ProspectiveRepMigra_Spain.xlsx Overview Excels files created to estimate demographic projections and consequently replacement migration are based on: 1-EUROSTAT population by age base line (01.01.2015) 2-EUROSTAT life expectancy assumptions – Female and Male Surviving Probabilities (2015-2060) 3-EUROSTAT fertility assumptions - Fertility Rates (2015-2060) 4-ONU migrants age structure (both sex age structure adapted for single years) These data allows to compute additional values for: 5-EUROSTAT gender specific age limits for 15 years of remaining life expectancy (2015-2060) 6- Population and Migrants prospective active age group and prospective old age group The excel files project population on a year-to-year basis between 01.01.2015 to 31.12.2016, for single years of age for females and males. Replacement migration inputs are defined by the differential between the population estimates without migration and the population values according with the specific demographic goals (sustain total population, sustain active population, sustain potential support ratio) For each year, the value computed in this differential (“Missing Population” line) is inserted manually on the “Replacement Migration”. The insertion of the value for each year forces the recalculation all the values for the subsequent years, namely subsequent “Missing Population” and consequently “Replacement Migration” needs. In each excel file 3 sheets: MIG_ACTI – computes replacement migration values needed to sustain the size of prospective active age migration 2015-2060 MIG_RATIO – computes replacement migration values needed to sustain to keep constant the PSR 2015-2060 MIG_STRUCT – computes the prospective proportion in active age and the prospective PSR in migrants flows In each sheet: Population age groups (calculated) Line 2 - TOTAL POPULATION Line 3 - YOUNG POPULATION (0-19) Line 4 - PROSPECTIVE ACTIVE POPULATION (20-LE15) Line 5 - PROSPECTIVE OLD AGE POPULATION(LE15-100+) Area: D2:D5 – AW2:AW5 Population and Migrants ratios and proportions Line 7 – Population Prospective PSR Line 8 – Missing Active Age Population Line 9 – Missing Total Population Line 10 – Migrants Prospective PSR Line 11 – Migrants Prospective Active Age Population Area: D7:D11 – AW8:AW11 Replacement migration (manually inserted year-by-year) Line 12 – REPLACEMENT MIGRATION D12 – AW12 Prospective age limits (inserted) Line 13 - PROSPECTIVE AGE LIMITS - Females Line 14 - PROSPECTIVE AGE LIMITS -Males Area: C13:C14 – AW13:AW14 Estimated births (calculated) Line 19 – Total births Line 20 – Female births Line 21 – Male births Area: D19:C22– AW19:AW22 Age structure for migrants (inserted) Females – Column A – area: A24:A124 Males - Column A – area:A131:A231 Age - Column B Baseline population by age (inserted) Females – Column C – area: C24:C124 Males – Column C – area: C131:C231 Projected population by age (single years) Females – area: D24:D124 Males – area: D131:D231 Assumption mortality by age (survival probabilities) Females: AZ23: AZ124 – CS23:CS124 Males: AZ130: AZ231 – CS130:CS231 Assumptions fertility (fertility rates) Area: CV39:CV73 – EO39:EO73 Estimated births Area: CV79:CV113 – EO79:EO113 How to use it? 1. Input the baseline population values by age and sex in 01.01.2015 2. Input mortality and fertility assumptions by age between 2015-2060 3. Input assumptions on the proportion of migrants active age population and potential ratio. We use MIG STRUCTURE sheet to estimate country specific prospective active population ratios based on ONU migrants age structure. The sheet is provided yet it must be tailored (population age group sums) in order that population age groups sums are defined properly. 4. Digit the value presented MISSING POPULATION (D8) in REPLACEMENT MIGRATION (D10) for 2015. Repeat the process sequentially to the flowing years. The excel will compute the differential based on population groups, adjust for mortality and fertility implications of the migration input, and update the population sums by age group.